By: Tim McCaffrey
ELITE 8 MBB
1) Bentley (19-5) LOCK: Falcons will be dancing, but are by no means a lock to host. They have the top line, for now, but as of the moment, the NE10 Tournament goes through Manchester and SNHU!
2) Saint Anselm (18-7): The Hawks are one win away from securing Musings LOCK status! A loss at New Haven this week could mean a game Friday in the 4 vs. 13 (NE10 Tourney 1st round) vs. American International or Saint Rose. Still a chance to host the regional!
3) Southern New Hampshire (18-7): The Penmen had early losses to Saint Rose and Bridgeport, which, combined with a home defeat to Saint A's, equals the three line. It is close, but I can’t make a solid case for SNHU above the ‘3’ at this time. That doesn’t mean that this group can’t end up hosting the regional, however!
4) New Haven (17-8): An All-Charger affair in the 4 vs. 5?
5) Dominican (19-6): See above!
6) Pace (18-9): The Setters have settled in the field, but a season-changing game awaits!
7) Franklin Pierce (16-10): The Ravens are using a skyrocketing RPI and marquee wins to enter the field.
8) St. Thomas Aquinas (22-4): With ZERO wins against the field, you can make a very good case for this being too high. While STAC has a 5-3 column advantage on the Ravens, when you peel back the onion, it reveals nuance. With that nuance comes the revelation that Sparty went 0-2 against the only two teams that would be in the field: Pace and Saint Anselm, for the entirety of their schedule. If you lose those games, you have to go undefeated in the ECC to get an at-large.
1st Team Out: Southern Connecticut (17-10)
I don’t see any team with a path for an at-large other than the above teams. The ECC should be a one-bid league. For what it is worth, I had Daemen (18-7) as the ’10’ this week, but I don’t see that group being able to get to the seven slot. I can listen to a case for SCSU in the field at eight, but the Owls need to scoot to the seven-line. The Raven triumph at the Moore Field House completely repositioned both clubs. The Owls will need help to dance and should be rooting hard against Pace and Pierce.
This bracket is not as easy to break down as in years past. The committee will have to take its time and look more deeply than just column for column. Competition and SOS matters. Non-Conference scheduling matters. Also, performance when facing the best teams matters! A bad loss should be overlooked if a team is able to prove it is able to beat teams high in the field. However, four bad losses may overwhelm multiple good wins. It is a body of work, after all!
Games of Note:
#7 Franklin Pierce @ #6 Pace: Tuesday, 7:30: The last day of the Northeast 10 regular-season has a game that could swing the bottom of the bracket in one direction or another. If Pace wins, the team secures a sweep of the Ravens. Pierce’s hold on the seven-line is tenuous and a loss could drop Rindge’s Division II team down a peg. The goal is to be a 5-seed or higher. If all three conference tournaments have winners not in the current Top 8, then this prevents a very long offseason!
#2 Saint Anselm @ #4 New Haven: Tuesday, 7:30: UNH sports wins at Bentley and at St. A's. The Hawks could finish first in the NE10 and gain a bye with a triumph and some help, but the squad could also be playing Friday in the Conference Tournament 1st round with a loss!
Northeast 10 First Round: (Top three seeds get byes to the quarterfinals)
Friday, February 24:
(13) @ (4)
(12) @ (5)
(11) @ (6)
(10) @ (7)
(9) @ (8)
Stay tuned! Potentially, if Pierce loses at Pace, the Ravens will host the 8 vs. 9 against Assumption. Let me just remind you that this would be an OPENING ROUND game in the NE10 Tournament. It would also be a necessity for the Ravens' at-large hopes. If the Setters lost on Tuesday, then Pace would end up playing Assumption in the 8 vs. 9, either in Pleasantville or Worcester depending on if the Greyhounds win on Tuesday at Southern Connecticut. Got all that?
The ladies have a bracket that is beginning to sort itself out, but you have to dig deep for answers.
ELITE 8 WBB
1) Jefferson (23-3): LOCK: The Rams have FINALLY ascended to the one-line. With wins over Shippensburg, Lincoln, Southern Connecticut State and Holy Family, the group has a slight edge over the two-seed. The boxes are so close that the team the committee chooses for #10 could wind up determining the host. For example, Daemen as #10 hurts Le Moyne and gives Jefferson an edge, but if STAC is #10, that shifts things in the Dolphins' favor.
2) Le Moyne: (21-5): LOCK: The Dolphins have played a tougher schedule, but they also lost games to Pace and Adelphi. Those are losses that Jefferson just doesn’t have. The women’s committee has not favored teams that play in stronger leagues when the columns are distinct. That is probably good news for Tom Shirley!
3) Assumption (22-4): LOCK: The Greyhounds will be dancing and could still host if it all breaks right.
4) Southern New Hampshire: (18-6) LOCK: The loss on Saturday certainly paused the Penmen’s chance to host, but not to be excluded from the Field of 64!
5) Southern Connecticut (16-9): When you look closely, the columns favor the Owls over the Falcons below.
6) Bentley (16-9): While it is close between Holy Family and Bentley, the Falcons sport two wins over SNHU and hand-raises vs. SCSU and Assumption.
7) Holy Family (18-8): Big game ahead!
8) ECC Tournament Winner (Daemen)
1st Team Out: New Haven (16-9)
Still Holding out hope…. American International (14-10)
As expected, Daemen has secured control of its destiny in the ECC and is now projected in the field. New Haven is outside, but can beat Saint Anselm Tuesday and win the first-round game Friday to secure a potential matchup with Bentley in Waltham. The Falcons lost to UNH already at home, but this would amount to a play-in game.
Games of Note:
American International @ #6 Bentley: Tuesday, 5:30: AIC would need a lot of strange things to happen, but for any chance of an at-large, this is a must-win! The Falcons would be in serious danger of not making the field with another home loss.
#3 Assumption @ #5 Southern Connecticut: Tuesday, 5:30: Assumption probably needs this to keep a realistic chance to host. The Owls are no certainty to be in the field with a loss. Coupled with a Bentley win, and those two would be flipped on Thursday, but there is a lot more to the week!
#7 Holy Family @ #1 Jefferson: Saturday, 2 pm: The Rams haven’t had to leave home since February 11, and with the CACC Tournament at Jefferson, there is a chance the Rams are done with any road trip until a potential Elite 8 appearance! While that is a long way off, the Tigers need to show themselves they are capable of beating a team in the field. While they banked wins over Lincoln and Bentley, they have quite a few losses that don’t inspire at-large consideration (Franklin Pierce, Bloomsburg, Georgian Court). Jefferson needs to win out to stay on the top line.
Northeast 10 First Round: (Top three seeds get byes to the quarterfinals)
Friday, February 24:
(13) @ (4)
(12) @ (5)
(11) @ (6)
(10) @ (7)
(9) @ (8)
Credit to Ink Blot for catching this…. https://twitter.com/
Until next week….
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This was written by Tim McCaffrey. To write to him, try t.p.mccaffrey@gmail.com, as he returns every e-mail!