McCaffrey’s Musings – 2/13/18
We welcome you to another edition of the Musings. This week we will debut the TMAC NINE, highlight a few games and have some overall thoughts on the region, but first we start with the playoff formats in each league.
Let’s take a look at each league, how many teams make the conference tournament and who they play. In the ECC only six teams participate. The top two get byes into the semi-final round which this year will be held at Roberts Wesleyan. The winner of the 3 vs. 6 will play the two seed, while the 4/5 victor gets the one seed.
In the CACC the top four teams from each the North and South Divisions make the tourney.The top two seeds in each division are hosts. The one seed from the North hosts the four from the South, the two in the South would host the three in the north; you get the picture. The winners of those four games meet in the semi-finals to be held at Jefferson University in Philadelphia. If the top seeds were to advance, the semifinal matchups would be 1N vs. 2S and 1S vs. 2N.
Finally, in the NE10 the higher seed always hosts. Ten teams make the tournament, five from each division. In the first round the fourth seed from the Southwest hosts the fifth seed from the Northeast with the winner facing the top seed from the Northeast Division in the quarterfinals. The four seed in the NE Division would welcome the five seed in the SW; that winner will play the one seed from the SW. The other quarterfinals would be 2SW (host) vs. 3NE and 2NE (host) vs 3SW. The NE10 can be a little complicated when upsets arise but that is what makes this time of year fun.
This week let’s change things up a little and debut the TMAC NINE before we go over games of interest on the women’s docket. Notice that we have a few teams that are now LOCKS to get an at-large bid if they don't win their respective league tournaments:
1) Stonehill (21-2) Last Week: #1; LOCK; Winners of 12 in a row, they control their destiny to host the regional... This Week: Merrimack (Wed.); Assumption (Sat.)
2) Sciences (23-2) Last Week #3; LOCK; They have passed nearly every test with honors... This Week: Goldey-Beacom (Tues.); @ Nyack (Sat.)
3) Bentley (21-3) Last Week #2; LOCK; SNHU has their number, hence they drop one spot....This Week: St. Mike's (Wed.); Merrimack (Sat.)
4) St. Thomas Aquinas (22-3) Last Week #4; Tricky week looming with a battle for first on Saturday... This Week: NYIT (Wed.); @ #8 LIU-Post (Sat.)
5) Jefferson (22-3) Last Week #5; The committee has its hands full seeding #5-8 and the Rams need a quality win ... This Week: @ #6 Caldwell (Sat.)
6) Caldwell (20-4) Last Week: #6; St Anselm and Merrimack’s recent good play is helping the Cougars... This Week: Nyack (Tues.); #5 Jefferson (Sat.)
7) Southern New Hampshire (15-9) Last Week: #8; A 1-1 week moves the Penmen up a peg (again) due to a win over #3 Bentley. SNHU is the only team outside the top three to defeat Stonehill or Bentley and they have two wins over the Top 3. This Week: St. A's (Wed.); Franklin Pierce (Sat.)
8) LIU-Post (18-6) Last Week: #7; The Pioneers should be in the field as of now (barring upsets) but beating STAC would help them considerably...This Week: @ UDC (Wed.) #4 STAC (Sat.)
9) Roberts Wesleyan (17-7) Last Week #9; The Redhawks are a distant ninth but they will have the home court advantage for ECC tournament…This Week: Queens (Fri.); Molloy (Sat.)
OUT: Southern Connecticut: (18-8) Last Week: #10; Big win over LeMoyne to solidify first in the NE10 SW Division, however a loss to a hot, but last place AIC squad doth not an NCAA entrant make.
Jefferson needs to beat Caldwell or they are in serious danger of being bubble-bound (more on that below). I think the top eight is fairly solid. Remember, any team can win the league tournament and spoil the party, so if you’re ranked six to eight you’re not safe until the chalk wins out. If you are wondering how I moved up SNHU to #7 consider this: In four games this year vs. Bentley and Stonehill, they are +3 in points. So, in four games they have OUTSCORED two of the three best teams in the region. LIU-Post has also played Bentley and Stonehill and has been outscored 176-120 (minus 56). Let that sink in for a moment.
Three games of note this week but one of particular interest for bubble teams hoping for a chance. Southern New Hampshire (15-9, 11-7 NE 10) is a selection committee's worst nightmare. I can't imagine the Penmen are thrilled about playing what amounts to a neutral site game at the recently renamed SNHU Arena (formerly Manchester Civic Arena). The game was moved from campus before the season. The arena contains over 11,000 seats so home court advantage will be negated. Plus, they are playing their cross-town rival: St. Anselm (15-10, 11-7). Third place is on the line here in the Northeast Division of the NE10 but also there are other things to ponder. St. A's is lurking. If it wins out and makes a deep run in the NE10 tournament, the Hawks could have a chance to slip in the dance. Also, they can sweep the season series with a win. SNHU is up and down, but it needs to win this game to prove that it can be consistent. Even with a loss the Penmen aren't falling out of the top eight.
Let's move to Saturday when the action heats with teams in prove-yourself mode. In the ECC, St. Thomas Aquinas (22-3, 14-1 ECC) will hope to avenge a home loss to LIU-Post (18-6, 13-1). This will essentially be a battle for the #1 seed in the league. The Pioneers can sweep the season series with a triumph and would have to lose all of their remaining games to not gain the regular season league title. STAC has one game left following Saturday's contest and it would be hard to imagine the Spartans dropping a contest on their Senior Day to a last-place District of Columbia squad. This game has regional implications also. I don't think STAC can get higher than the four line but they can certainly drop down. The Pioneers are firmly on the bubble and a win would prove to me they are the best on offer in the ECC.
Finally, two of the CACC's best meet in New Jersey. Jefferson (22-3, 15-1 CACC) needs to prove to itself (and the selection committee) that it belongs with the elites in the region. The best in-region win the Rams have is at Chestnut Hill (15-9). They are 0-2 against the TMAC NINE. To be elite you not only have to beat the elite, but you also have to play them. Caldwell (20-4, 13-2) has a better schedule and the opportunity to solidify first in the CACC North with a win. Neither of these teams is dropping out of the top eight with a loss but a win will make them a near-lock. The Rams also can clinch home court for the entire CACC Tournament with a victory.
Now, we debut the Men's East Region TMAC NINE:
1) LeMoyne (19-5) Last Week: #1; LOCK; The Dolphins have won ten straight and schedule strength is off the charts… This Week: Pace (Wed); @ #4 Saint Rose (Sat.)
2) Bridgeport (21-4) Last Week: #2; LOCK; UB sweeps STAC, Mike Ruane's team will dance!... This Week: Mercy (Sat.)
3) St. Thomas Aquinas (21-6) Last Week #5; LOCK; Even with a loss the Spartans moved up two spots... This Week: NYIT (Wed.); @ LIU-Post (Sat.)
4) Saint Rose (18-7) Last Week #4; 2-1 week keeps the Golden Knights in great shape... This week: @ AIC (Wed.); #1 LeMoyne (Sat.)
5) Bloomfield (20-4) Last Week: #5; Win on Tuesday and they are a near lock... This Week: @ New Haven (Tues.); Georgian Court (Sat.)
6) St. Anselm (18-6) Last Week: #3; Losing to Assumption doesn't help the case; two winnable road affairs upcoming... This Week: @ SNHU (Wed.); @ St. Mike's (Sat.)
7) Stonehill (15-9) Last Week 8; It's the right time of year to get hot, they are winners of six of seven and have seven quality wins...This Week: #8 Merrimack (Wed.); Assumption (Sat.)
8) Merrimack: (16-9) Last Week: #7; MC is treading water with a huge game coming… This Week: @ #7 Stonehill (Wed.); @ Bentley (Sat.)
9) Daemen (17-7) Last Week: #9; Winners of 12 of 13 but only four of those wins and six on the season are vs. above .500 teams... This Week: Molloy (Fri.); Queens (Sun.)
OUT: New Haven (13-8) Last Week: 10; UNH has a chance with Bloomfield and LeMoyne on the schedule but they'll also need a deep run in NE10 tournament.
If there's one team not on this list that has a chance at an at-large bid, it's Dominican. The Chargers proved earlier this year they couldn't stand prosperity, so being off the radar may be the best thing for them. Another off-the-radar club is Goldey-Beacom, winners of seven in a row. The Lightning have first place in the CACC South. Dominican and Goldey-Beacom play on Saturday in Wilmington.
There are three games that caught my eye this week but we begin Tuesday with the final in-region non-conference affair. Bloomfield (20-4) has positioned itself so well that it is in range to wear the home jerseys come NCAA time but it will need to beware of a very good New Haven (13-8) unit. The Chargers have fewer home wins (six) than road wins (seven). That's remarkable. Maybe they'd be more comfortable if this game was at Bloomfield. The Bears would love a chance to get back to the dance for the second straight year and this game would make them a virtual lock if they can pull out a win. If the Chargers win and they somehow get a win over LeMoyne next week they will be in much better shape. It's a long road to hoe, but it's possible.
The other two games are in the NE10. On Wednesday Stonehill (15-9, 11-7 NE 10) welcomes Merrimack (16-9, 12-6) in a battle that could have major regional implications. The Skyhawks have ZERO margin for error. Despite all the quality wins, a loss to the Warriors means they would be 0-2 in the season series. Sweeping the season series would be huge for Merrimack, especially when you’re as even as these two clubs are. The Warriors and Skyhawks are going to be bubble-bound even with a win, so a loss hurts that much more. Dominican and Daemen are lurking with much easier schedules, so neither Merrimack nor Stonehill can afford to go 0-2 this week. Winning the first game of the week eliminates the chance to have a winless week.
Finally, Saturday's contest in Albany between host Saint Rose (18-7, 13-4 NE 10) and visitor LeMoyne (19-5, 16-1) in reality doesn't mean that much. Neither team is on the bubble. The Dolphins will likely have clinched home-court throughout the NE10 tourney by Saturday and will have their second straight division title. They won't fall off my one line even with a loss. The Golden Knights are a near-lock for the NCAA field and even with a loss here probably won't fall any lower than five. So why is this game here? It's a rivalry game and should be an old fashioned slugfest. If you like hoops then you'll enjoy the way these two teams play basketball.
Next Week, we'll have the OFFICIAL top 8 from the regional committee. Will there be any surprises? We'll also narrow down our poll to the top eight!! Enjoy your week and Happy Hooping!!