McCaffrey’s Musings – 2/20/18
It's that time of year..... Conference Tournament time! However, before we get that party started we have some very important regular season games and a TMAC Eight to debut. Since it's been ladies first for the past few editions of the musings, let's give the men top billing this week.
Only four games of note this week, but three are NE10 regular season finales. American International (11-16, 6-11 NE 10) has lost six in a row but the Yellow Jackets will play a winner-gets-into-the-postseason game at Adelphi (10-17, 6-11) Tuesday. This is, for all intents and purposes, the beginning of the playoffs. The winner gets the #5-seed in the Southwest Division and will play the #4-seed in the Northeast Division. Meanwhile, the loser of the affair will have its season come to an end.
Next up, it's the biggest game New Haven (16-9, 12-7 NE 10) will play so far this season, at LeMoyne (21-5, 18-1). Tuesday's contest for the Chargers will either be a victory that they can hang their hats on or another road loss against an above .500 team. UNH is 0-6 against teams with winning records in road games. They don't have the tournament resume unless they pull an upset of the Dolphins. LeMoyne has locked up an undefeated conference road record with the only home blemish coming at the hands of Bentley. It would be very hard for Patrick Beilein's group to fall off the one line but if they were to lose here and some perfect scenarios were to play out (and I mean perfect), they could drop to two. That would require Bridgeport winning out and probably Bloomfield winning out and a couple of the teams out of region who beat the Dolphins falling out of the regional rankings. It really is amazing how other teams can help you or hurt you this time of year. Even with a victory New Haven is locked into a #3-seed in the NE10 Southwest Division; more on the #3 in a moment.
Finally, on Tuesday Stonehill (16-10, 12-8 NE 10) visits St. Anselm (19-7, 14-6). Before you count out the Skyhawks remember they have played the top seven of the regional rankings seven times (2-5). This will be game number eight just against the top seven. Meanwhile, Daemen (who we project to be 8th this week) has played only nine games against teams with WINNING records. In fairness to the Wildcats they are 5-4 in those games. It also means they have three losses to teams who do not have winning records, although two of those teams can get over .500 this week. That would be huge for Daemen. Back to the game where St. A's simply can't afford another loss.The Hawks are sinking like a stone in the regional ranking and are piling up losses to teams they should handle. A win here would right the ship and with several other teams around them imploding could buoy them into the NCAA field. Stonehill needs to win but in doing so could be locked into the dreaded NE10 #3-seed. The three seed gets a first round bye but plays the quarterfinals on the road. A #4-seed gets a first round home game and the potential of gaining a big upset in the next round. It's much easier to play your way into the dance from the #4-spot than #3.
Now we turn to the CACC, where two teams are playing for first place in the CACC South. This affair doesn't have NCAA ramifications but when Jefferson (17-12, 12-5 CACC) and Goldey-Beacom (17-9, 13-4) meet in Wilmington on Wednesday either the Lightning will clinch the South crown or the Rams will control their destiny going into Saturday's game versus Holy Family. Whoever gets the #2-seed is in for a tussle when they host a surging Caldwell unit. The Cougars are peaking at the perfect time and have won six of their last seven.
I was very proud of how the Musings nearly nailed the regional rankings on the men's and women's sides last time. This has been a very tough year to predict and with the cluster of teams at the bottom it's anyone's guess what will happen but we've sorted it out nicely. Here's my TMAC Tournament Eight:
1) LeMoyne (21-5) Last Week: #1; LOCK; The Dolphins have won 12 straight... This Week: UNH (Tues.); NE10 Quarterfinals (Sun.)
2) Bridgeport (22-4) Last Week: #2; LOCK; Hard to see UB moving off this line... This Week: Molloy (Wed.); @ Queens (Sat.)
3) St. Thomas Aquinas (23-6) Last Week #3; LOCK; Also hard to see STAC moving... This Week: UDC (Sat.)
4) Saint Rose (19-8) Last Week #4; LOCK; I'm not sure how St. Rose could fall lower than five come tourney time... This week: @ Pace (Tues.); NE10 Quarterfinals (Sun.)
5) Bloomfield (21-5) Last Week: #5; LOCK; Despite a road loss to UNH we're moving the Bears to Lockville... This Week: @ Felician (Wed.); @ Caldwell (Sat.)
6) Dominican (19-7) Last Week: NR; 5-0 over last two weeks; right time of year to win and watch everyone around you combust... This Week: Concordia (Wed.); @ Nyack (Sun.)
7) St. Anselm (19-7) Last Week: #6; Hawks tend to rise to win the big home games and are 12-1 at Stoutenburgh Gym... This Week: Stonehill (Tues.); NE10 Quarterfinals (Sun.)
8) Daemen (17-7) Last Week: #9; Winners of 14 of 15 and despite surviving against two sub-500 teams at home they have the ability to win and advance.... This Week: @ LIU-Post (Fri.); @ NYIT (Sun.)
So you're saying there's a chance.....at an at-large bid…
Stonehill (16-10) The Path: Win @ St. A's, get to the finals of the NE10 tourney and hope for a bit of help.
Merrimack: (17-10) The Path: Beat St. Mike's then hope pieces fall into place. They should probably be rooting for Stonehill to beat St. A's but taking care of their own biz is the best bet.
New Haven (16-9) The Path: Start with a win @ LeMoyne.... Well, I didn't say it was an easy chance!!
Let's transition to the women's side where on Tuesday Stonehill (23-2, 19-1 NE 10) travels to St. Anselm (17-10, 13-7). The Skyhawks are looking to keep hold of the top spot in the region. The Hawks could vault into the top eight with a marquee win. A loss here and the door would likely be closed for an at-large bid for St. Anselm. If Stonehill were to fall and the University of the Sciences (25-2, 17-1 CACC) are able to avenge its home defeat to Chestnut Hill (17-9, 13-4) on Saturday, the top seed would be up for grabs. Chestnut Hill is another team that has an opportunity, only because they have a win over the Devils and a chance to sweep the regular season series. The bubble is soft, but it would burst on the Griffins if they were unable to pull another upset on Sciences.
We continue our bubble watch with a team that has a huge weekend slate, Roberts Wesleyan (18-8, 12-4 ECC), who venture to Long Island for a Friday night contest with NYIT (16-10, 10-6). The Bears need to win out and hope Roberts Wesleyan loses its final two game in order to claim third-place in the ECC. The schedule gets even tougher on Sunday when the Redhawks play at first-place LIU Post (20-6, 15-1). Gary Andrews' team has bigger fish to fry than 3rd place; they need at least one win and more likely two to get into the coveted eight spot in the regional rankings. Frankly, I think Roberts Wesleyan is a top eight team, but, after a rough weekend in which they lost at home to an 11-13 Queens squad and struggled but survived at home to an 8-18 Molloy club, they need to prove they still have what it takes.
Full steam ahead for the TMAC ELITE EIGHT
1) Stonehill (23-2) Last Week: #1; LOCK; Winners of 14 in a row, they still control their destiny to host the regional... This Week: @ St. A's (Tues.); NE10 Quarterfinals (Sun.)
2) Sciences (25-2) Last Week #2; LOCK; Can Chestnut Hill pull off another surprise?... This Week: @ Chestnut Hill (Sat.)
3) Bentley (23-3) Last Week #3; LOCK; Quietly lurking, poised for a run at another NE 10 Tournament crown...This Week: Franklin Pierce (Tues.); NE10 Quarterfinals (Sun.)
4) Caldwell (22-4) Last Week #6; LOCK; The Cougars will be dancing... This Week: @ Post (Wed.); vs. Bloomfield (Sat.)
5) LIU-Post (20-6) Last Week #8; Give the Pioneers credit for handing STAC both of its league losses,and both by double figures ... This Week: Daemen (Fri.); Roberts Wesleyan (Sun.)
6) St. Thomas Aquinas (23-4) Last Week: #4; The Spartans are a gritty group;... This Week: UDC (Sat.)
7) Jefferson (22-4) Last Week: #5; Rams are a year away from being really good but they'd still like to dance... This Week: @ Goldey-Beacom (Wed.); Holy Family (Sat.)
8) Southern Connecticut (20-8) Last Week: #NR; The regular season is complete but they still have work to do...This Week: NE10 Quarterfinals (Sun.)
Work to be done: Roberts Wesleyan: I went back and forth with Roberts Wesleyan and SCSU for the eighth seed and I imagine the regional committee will do the same. Two road wins could move them as high as seventh seed considering the caliber of wins but two losses and it's all she wrote for the Redhawks. RWC still has home-court for the entire ECC Tournament, so they have that going for them, which is nice.
Speaking of upsets we talked about the path of St. Anselm earlier but how about Southern New Hampshire? The Penmen will get the fourth seed in the NE10's Northeast Division and host the #5-seed in the Southwest Division, either New Haven or Saint Rose. If they were to win that they'd travel to Southern Connecticut where they easily handled the Owls in their first meeting. Two road wins against another bubble team would put them in much better but not great shape. If they were to win the quarterfinal contest they'd likely get Bentley in the semifinals and if they win that game they would be dancing. Three wins over Bentley would be remarkable. It's a very long and winding road, but that's why they're in the work left to do category.
We'll be back soon to break down more bubble teams and keep you up to date on tournament news. Keep it here on d2easthoops.org for all the latest. Until we meet next time: Happy Hooping!!