McCaffrey’s Musings – 2/28/18
Welcome to the last Musing before the NCAA tournament field is announced. Let's jump in with who's in, who's not and the weekend ahead... Ladies first!
Latest Regional Ranking
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Stonehill 6. LIU Post
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Bentley 7. Jefferson
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Sciences 8. SCSU
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STAC 9. RWC
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Caldwell 10. LeMoyne
#1 Stonehill is a lock for the dance and may host the East Regional even if they don't win the NE10 title. Up next the Skyhawks welcome #10 Le Moyne in an NE10 semifinal. The Dolphins need to win the league title to get in, they have too much ground to make up to #8 Southern Connecticut and #9 Roberts Wesleyan to jump to the eight. It doesn't help that Le Moyne is 0-6 versus regionally ranked teams. The other NE10 semifinal consists of #2 Bentley and Southern Connecticut State. I can't begin to declare the importance of this game for the Owls. A win and they are a virtual lock so long as Roberts Wesleyan, NYIT (ECC), Le Moyne and Bloomfield (CACC) do not win their respective league tournaments. Bentley can still get the top overall seed and host the regional but it's very likely in doing so they'd still be behind in the computerized categories 4-2 vs. Stonehill. If Bentley wins its last two games they deserve to host no matter what the computers tell the committee. As I type this SCSU and the Redhawks are remarkably close in every column and tied in Performance Indicator, which is one of the six primary categories on the women's side. No other teams in the region are tied in that column.It's almost unfathomable.
If SCSU loses, Roberts Wesleyan should get in just by winning its’ ECC semifinal home game against #4 St. Thomas Aquinas. As much as I disagree with the current seeding of STAC (they should be #6) it's hard to imagine the Spartans could drop any lower than the six line. If they lose in the finals to #6 LIU Post (who first has to get by rival NYIT) they would most certainly be below the Pioneers by virtue of being swept 3-0 in the season series. LIU Post has one league setback on the season and it was to their ‘Battle of the Boulevard’ opponent, NYIT. These two teams are separated by just over a mile but they are traversing over six hours (361 miles) to Rochester.
Finally, in the CACC, only Bloomfield needs to win to get a bid but its semifinal opponent, #7 Jefferson (who is hosting the CACC tourney) is trying to avoid being on the wrong side of history. Jefferson has 25 wins, (24 NCAA wins) and if it does not win the league tournament and doesn't garner an at-large selection they'd be the first regional team to have that many wins and not be invited to dance in the 64-team era. Jefferson should be safe even with a loss as long as two of Bloomfield, NYIT, and Le Moyne don't win an automatic bid. If the Rams beat Bloomfield, they will be in great shape. The other CACC semifinal pits #3 Sciences against #5 Caldwell. The Cougars would almost certainly move up to the four line if they win out and STAC does not win the ECC. They could drop to six even with a loss, but that is the range for them. Sciences have an outside (almost impossible) chance to still host the regional but it would need to world to shift off axis for just a couple hours. It's hard to think Bentley and Stonehill would both lose in the NE10 semifinals and the Devils would beat Caldwell and Jefferson. It's a wild scenario but it is possible. It's much more likely Sciences, if it wins out, would get the two-seed, but one has to remember the NCAA Committee does not like having teams face each other for a fourth time in the first round. Interestingly enough, if Roberts Wesleyan was to finish with the eighth seed and play Stonehill they would be competing for the third time this year. Southern Connecticut has only played Stonehill once. That is a NON-FACTOR, however, when choosing who will get the final spot. If RWC was to win out there's a slight chance they could be seeded seventh. It's going to be a wild few days.
LOCKS: Stonehill, Bentley, Sciences, STAC, Caldwell
SHOULD BE IN BARRING UPSETS IN LEAGUE TOURNAMENTS: LIU Post, Jefferson
WORK TO DO FOR AT LARGE: Southern Connecticut, Roberts
NEEDS TO WIN LEAGUE TOURNAMENT: Le Moyne, Bloomfield, NYIT
The men's side is a polar opposite to the women. There are several teams sitting at home chewing what's left of their fingernails.Latest Regional Ranking
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LeMoyne 6. Bloomfield
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Bridgeport 7. Merrimack
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STAC 8. Daemen
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Saint Rose 9. New Haven
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St. Anselm 10. Dominican
The NE10 Championship contest is set and it consists of #1 LeMoyne hosting #5 St. Anselm. Even with a loss I don't see the Hawks dropping but they could steal the four-seed from Saint Rose (who was eliminated in the NE10 Quarterfinals) with a defense of their tournament crown. A Dolphin triumph and they would be a lock to host the regional, but there's a chance, albeit slight, that #2 Bridgeport could jump them if it wins the ECC Tournament and LeMoyne doesn't win Saturday. #9 New Haven, despite being victorious at LeMoyne, moved up only one spot after falling at Merrimack. The only reason the Warriors are ahead is because they have played two extra games this season and won both. New Haven simply cannot get in by the numbers at first glance but I think Merrimack should worry. Will a blowout loss to Le Moyne hurt its performance indicator (PI) enough? The men's committee uses five primary categories, and UNH trails Merrimack 3-2, but PI is so close, I'm not counting New Haven out quite yet (but they should be rooting for Daemen to lose). We mentioned the Golden Knights earlier and they are locked in to either the four or the five seed. It would appear that Saint Rose and St. Anselm's are destined for a first-round NCAA meeting. Remember, the eight-seed will go to the CACC tournament winner, so it's the race to the seven. Four teams (#6 Bloomfield, UNH, Merrimack, #8 Daemen) are jockeying for two spots.
In the ECC, only Molloy can crash the dance. If the Lions did win two straight it would be a great story considering they are only a year removed from having being snubbed on Selection Sunday. The Lions have a huge task as their ECC semifinal opponent in Rochester is Bridgeport. It’s hard to see UB falling from the two-seed with a win here. It's possible, but not likely, they could drop to the three seed with a loss if the right team (STAC) wins the ECC. Speaking of the #3 Spartans, they play a neutral venue game in Rochester but undoubtedly the crowd will favor their opponents, #8 Daemen. The Wildcats are by no means a lock to dance, however a win vs. STAC should be enough to move them into the seventh seed. A loss and there's a chance they are on the outside looking in Sunday Night.
The CACC is simple: win to get in. #10 Dominican plays Goldey-Beacom while it's an all-Philadelphia semifinal between Sciences and Jefferson. The Rams host the winner-take-all extravaganza over the weekend. Bloomfield, which has lost its final two games, is in peril. While I still think the Bears are currently in the field a Daemen win might be enough to drop Bloomfield to eight. That wouldn't be good enough to get in as the eight seed will go to the CACC tournament winner. Bloomfield, Merrimack, New Haven, and Daemen are VERY close, but only the Wildcats are playing this weekend.
LOCKS: LeMoyne, Bridgeport, STAC, Saint Rose, St. A's
SHOULD BE IN: Nobody
WORK LEFT TO DO: Daemen
CROSSING FINGERS: Bloomfield, UNH, Merrimack
WIN TO GET IN: Molloy, Dominican, Jefferson, Goldey-Beacom, Sciences