McCaffrey’s Musings - ECC playoff preview - 2/26/18
The 2018 East Coast Conference regular season is complete so that means it's time to take a look ahead to the ECC Tournament....
2018 East Coast Conference Men’s Basketball Championship
First Round – Wednesday, February 28 at campus sites
7:00 p.m. - No. 5 Molloy at No. 4 LIU Post
7:00 p.m. - No. 6 Roberts Wesleyan at No. 3 Daemen
Semifinals – Saturday, March 3 at Roberts Wesleyan
5:00 p.m. - Molloy/LIU Post vs. No. 1 Bridgeport
7:30 p.m. – Roberts Wesleyan/Daemen vs. No. 2 St. Thomas Aquinas
Final – Sunday, March 4 at Roberts Wesleyan
2:30 p.m. - Semifinal winners
Wednesday's first round clashes have varied importance. Both Molloy and LIU Post (who swept the season series) need to hoist the trophy on Sunday to gain an NCAA bid. The Lions have alternated losses and wins since January 21st so using that logic they're due for a loss here. That 5-5 stretch was good enough to vault Molloy from out of the playoff picture to the five-seed. LIU Post will have home-court but it enters losers of four of five. The survivor gets top seed Bridgeport in Rochester. I'd expect to see UB in the finals.
The other semifinal is a rivalry game between Roberts Wesleyan and Daemen. The Wildcats are currently projected #7 in my unofficial poll, but they cannot afford a loss to a team that has dropped seven in a row. This game is a double-edged sword for Daemen, as a win would knock the Redhawks from being an over .500 team and slightly tarnish the three wins against its Western New York foe. In fact, it would also mean at the time of publishing that Daemen would be 4-5 against teams over .500 this season. A win would make Daemen 18-2 against teams .500 or worse. They are 2-3 against teams projected in be in the NCAA field. That's the same amount of wins as Stonehill, who is 2-7 vs. projected NCAA teams. So what does it all mean? It means Daemen needs to win. Roberts Wesleyan has hit a wall but a triumph would result in home court for the semifinals. I project the Wildcats to win and, depending on what happens in other leagues, they may be in a must-win scenario on Saturday vs. St. Thomas Aquinas. Buffalo is only a little over 90 minutes from Rochester and Daemen travels well, so if they advance they'd have a decent home court advantage. While some other teams have fallen Daemen has stayed steady and avoided poor losses. Here's who you should be a fan of if you're a Wildcat supporter: LeMoyne and Bloomfield. If Bloomfield doesn't take the CACC tournament it takes away an at-large bid.If LeMoyne defeats Merrimack there is a cluster of three teams (New Haven, Daemen and Merrimack) for the seventh and eighth seeds. LeMoyne plays Merrimack on Wednesday. New Haven was eliminated from the NE10 tournament in the quarterfinals. A victory in the semis would put the Wildcats in LOCK range as long as Bentley (NE10), a team other than Bloomfield (CACC) and a team not named Bridgeport, STAC, or Daemen would win the ECC. Got all that? It's complicated.
The ECC has three teams in currently in the NCAA field which should mean a thrilling championship day. UB is the favorite, but not definitively so. I kinda like Daemen here. They have the ability to play up to the competition and are poised for their first ECC title run.
2018 East Coast Conference Women’s Basketball Championship
First Round – Wednesday, February 28 at campus sites
7:30 p.m. - No. 5 Queens at No. 4 NYIT
7:00 p.m. - No. 6 Daemen at No. 3 Roberts Wesleyan
Semifinals – Saturday, March 3 at Roberts Wesleyan
12:00 p.m. - Queens/NYIT vs. No. 1 LIU Post
2:30 p.m. - Daemen/Roberts Wesleyan vs. No. 2 St. Thomas Aquinas
Final – Sunday, March 4 at Roberts Wesleyan
12:00 p.m. - Semifinal winners
The ECC on the women's side is very similar to the men. LIU Post and St Thomas are solidly in the NCAA field. It's hard to imagine either not dancing. The first round games also have one matchup of teams that need to win out to the NCAA’s (NYIT/Queens) and another that includes Daemen and Roberts Wesleyan. This time it's the Redhawks who are trying to sneak into the NCAA field. This is a must-win for Roberts Wesleyan, who stood ninth in the latest regional rankings. RWC needs to advance to the finals. That would mean two home court wins. That still may not be enough if the team they are fighting for the eight-seed against, Southern Connecticut, wins on Wednesday against Bentley.
Frankly, the NCAA committee's computers have it wrong if they think LIU Post should be two positions behind STAC in the regional rankings. I like Post to win this title and to avenge a loss to arch-rival NYIT in the process. If the Pioneers beat the Spartans for a third time and are still behind STAC in the NCAA seedings they have a very legit beef. STAC and LIU can both move as high as the four-line. In fact it's possible they could play in the first round of the NCAA’s. A Roberts Wesleyan vs. LIU Post championship game would prove a huge problem for the selection committee. Southern Connecticut and RWC would be so close you would have to feel for either not being invited to the dance. Of course, Roberts Wesleyan could avoid that issue by winning the ECC tournament and gaining the automatic bid.
Wednesday morning we'll update our regional rankings and discuss the CACC and ECC semifinal games. In addition, we'll discuss the NE10 semifinals and go over what needs to happen for each team to dance come Sunday night.