McCaffrey’s Musings - NE10 playoff preview - 2/21/18
The NE10 Conference tournament field is set so let’s take a look at what's ahead.
First, on the men's side.....Thanks to the NE10 for sorting it all out...
Northeast Division:
1. Saint Anselm (15-6)
2. Merrimack (14-7)
3. Bentley (12-9)*
4. Stonehill (12-9)*
5. Southern New Hampshire (11-10)
* Bentley and Stonehill split the season series 1-1. They both were 0-2 vs. Saint Anslem. Bentley earned the #3 seed based on a 1-1 record vs. Merrimack (Stonehill was 0-2 vs. Merrimack)
Southwest Division:
1. Le Moyne (18-2)
2. Saint Rose (15-5)
3. New Haven (13-7)
4. Southern Connecticut (11-9)
5. Adelphi (7-13)
First Round Friday, February 23
Game 1: Adelphi (#5 SW) at Stonehill (#4 NE) – 7:00 PM
Game 2: Southern New Hampshire (#5 NE) at Southern Connecticut (#4 SW), 7
Quarterfinals Sunday, February 25
Game 3: Game 1 winner at Le Moyne (#1 SW), 4
Game 4: Game 2 winner at Saint Anselm (#1, NE), 3
Game 5: Bentley (#3 NE) at Saint Rose (#2 SW), 3
Game 6: New Haven (#3 SW) at Merrimack (#2 NE), 3
Semifinals Wednesday, February 28th (at highest seeds remaining):
Game 7: Game 6 winner vs. Game 3 winner, 7
Game 8: Game 5 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 7
Championship Saturday, March 3rd (at highest seed remaining):
Game 9: Game 8 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 1
Analysis: Le Moyne and Saint Rose are locks for the NCAA tournament field. After that every other team in this conference has work to do. St. Anselm, despite winning its division cannot afford a first round loss. The Hawks could survive a defeat, but their position on the bubble would be tenuous. New Haven, thanks in large part to its marquee win at Le Moyne on Tuesday, is the team I have on the eight line in the East Region. Remember the current regional rankings do NOT reflect the Charger victory. Unfortunately for them they are a dreaded NE 10 three-seed. A team they are competing with for an at-large is Merrimack, who UNH plays in the quarterfinals. New Haven may be able to go dancing with a quarterfinal win but the Warriors likely need one more triumph in the semifinal round. The only other team with any at-large hopes is Stonehill. Depending on whom the Skyhawks play, they probably need to win the league championship, but if the path to the finals included wins over Le Moyne and New Haven they might have a chance. Every other team playing in this tourney needs to win to get in.If one of those teams happens to play Cinderella it will get the eight-seed in the NCAA’s and take away an at-large. The opening round begins Friday with two fascinating tussles. We mentioned Stonehill has plenty of work to do going forward but the Adelphi team it hosts would love to play spoiler. The Panthers won the only meeting between these two this season and it's a loss that still haunts the Skyhawks. The other matchup takes place in New Haven where it's a rematch of an NCAA Tournament opening round game from a year ago. Southern Connecticut will welcome Southern New Hampshire for the second time this season and the winner gets St. Anselm so it could potentially be an all Manchester affair in the quarterfinals.
Let's take a look at the women's ledger:
Northeast Division
1. Stonehill (20-1)
2. Bentley (18-3)
3. Saint Anselm (13-8)
4. Southern New Hampshire (12-9)
5. Merrimack (11-10)
Southwest Division:
1. Southern Connecticut (14-6)
2. Le Moyne (12-8)
3. Pace (11-9)
4. Adelphi (9-11)
5. Saint Rose (8-12)
First Round Friday, February 23
Game 1: Saint Rose (#5 SW) at Southern New Hampshire (#4 NE), 7
Game 2: Merrimack (#5 NE) at Adelphi (#4 SW), 7
Quarterfinals Sunday, February 25
Game 3: Game 1 winner at Southern Connecticut (#1 SW), 3
Game 4: Game 2 winner at Stonehill (#1 NE), 3
Game 5: Saint Anselm (#3 NE) at Le Moyne (#2 SW), 2
Game 6: Pace (#3 SW) at Bentley (#2 NE), 3
Semifinals Thursday, March 1 (at highest remaining seeds):
Game 7: Game 6 winner vs. Game 3 winner, 7
Game 8: Game 5 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 7
Championship Sunday, March 4 (at highest remaining seed):
Game 9: Game 8 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 1
Analysis: The only two NCAA tournament locks are Stonehill and Bentley, the rest have plenty of work ahead. Southern New Hampshire has played its way out of at-large consideration and in doing so has handed St. Anselm the foreboding three-seed. The Hawks have a slim opportunity for a bid but it would have to begin with a win over Le Moyne. So much of what happens with the eighth NCAA seed will be determined in other leagues. Can Jefferson hang on? Will Roberts Wesleyan get a marquee win this weekend? However, the team that sits eighth doesn't necessarily control its own destiny. Not only does Southern Connecticut need to avoid the quarterfinal bounce against either Saint Rose or more likely Southern New Hampshire, it also has to keep an eye on other leagues and wish no team will come from out of nowhere and take an automatic bid. Speaking of SNHU and Saint Rose, they play Friday in a game of two teams that need standing eight counts. The Penmen have lost three of four and appear to be out of gas. The Golden Knights stunned Pace just to get into the NE10 field in an exciting game in Pleasantville. The win snapped a nine-game February losing streak for Saint Rose, who had lost 19 of 20 games in the month (over the past three seasons) entering the contest. The winner gets SCSU who has a remarkable streak going of its own; the Owls are 9-0 this year in games decided by one possession. The other first-round game will take place on Long Island where Adelphi hosts Merrimack with the winner having the daunting task of going to Stonehill. The Warriors have given the Skyhawks two tough games this year but these two teams are a combined 0-3 versus Stonehill.
Couple things on my mind unrelated to the NE10 tournament. What in creation is going on with the WBCA Division II Women's poll? How is Bentley #13 and Stonehill #18? I have great disdain for polls when the bottom line is that there are people voting that have never seen most of the teams play. I don't honestly know where the East Region this year ranks with other regions but I do know that as I type this Stonehill is not behind Bentley in any way if you have unbiased eyes. Rant over! We'll talk again Monday when we'll update our own regional rankings and have CACC and ECC tournament previews. In addition we'll break down what's ahead in the NE10 tournament. Until Next time; Happy Hooping!