Happy Monday (or whatever day you’re reading this)! We’ve got some good news! In addition to this column, we’ll have a Midweek Musing (hopefully Wednesday night), in which we’ll talk about the first NCAA East Regional Rankings. We’ll discuss what each committee got right and wrong (if anything)!
We start with the ladies, who have nine teams elbowing for eight spots. Our top four are LOCKS, but we begin this week with the week that was.
The New York Institute of Technology (18-7) dropped both games in Western New York to Roberts Wesleyan and Daemen. They are off the bubble and, like every other East Coast Conference school but St. Thomas Aquinas, in the auto-bid only category. Merrimack lost a heartbreaker at Southern New Hampshire in OT. The Penmen are hanging on by a thread and will have a huge game this week (see below). Bentley keeps on trucking. Its two wins at home over SNHU and St. Anselm have solidified the Falcons in our Definitive Top 8:
1) Sciences (24-1): 13 straight wins, but still the Falcons are breathing down the necks of the Devils. Any loss could cost them a chance to host the East Regional.
2) Bentley (23-2): 10 in a row for Barbara Stevens’ bunch but one tough road test in the regular season awaits this week.
3) Jefferson (23-1): The Rams still have an outside chance to host, but at this point they wouldn’t complain if they had to travel eight miles to University City.
4) Le Moyne (19-4): The Dolphins, like the rest of the top four, are a LOCK.
5) Stonehill (17-7): The Skyhawks are way ahead of schedule and some rough terrain is ahead, but they are probably just two wins away from dancing.
6) St. Thomas Aquinas (22-3): You can make a case for STAC from four to nine, which is a problem with the criteria. The Spartans deserve to be in, but they don’t deserve to be rewarded with a seed any higher than this due to a poor non-conference schedule.
7) Merrimack (17-8): Bad News: Getting swept by SNHU makes for some must-win games. Good News: The two tough games this week are at home and winning one would be enough to solidify its spot in the Top 8.
8) St. Anselm (16-7): The only bright side for the Hawks is they have a chance to sweep the season series from the Penmen on Wednesday. Even a win may not be good enough to move them off the dreaded eight-line. The biggest STAC fans in the country reside in Manchester, New Hampshire. If the Spartans don’t win the ECC tournament, there would likely be two teams in the field from that conference, which would knock one out one of the top 8. Here’s another issue that could dampen the Hawks’ desires - they don’t play the maximum number of games. The NCAA always wants its team to play as many games as possible.
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
SNHU (16-9): I would strongly suggest that it wins its final three regular season games for any shot of an at-large bid.
Games to Watch:
Wednesday, February 20 @ 5:30: SNHU @ #8 St. Anselm
The Penmen have been all over this column but they won’t be next week if they lose here. Karen Pinkos’ team needs a “road” win in Manchester against the cross-town rival Hawks to stay in the NCAA tourney discussion. The Hawks have done everything just slightly better by the numbers. A sweep of SNHU wouldn’t necessarily move them up but it would congeal the Top 8.
Wednesday, February 20 @ 5:30: #5 Stonehill @ #7 Merrimack
Merrimack would be in lock range if it could muster two wins this week, but every journey in the NE10 begins with a step. As long as the Warriors don’t step "in it" this week and win one of the two, they’ll likely be in. The Skyhawks are a tough out and they are one of the best-coached squads in the region.
Friday, February 22 @ 5:30: Daemen @ #6 STAC
The Musings will be in the house when the Spartans hope to avenge their only ECC loss to Daemen. First place will also be up for grabs. I like Kim Lusk’s ladies in this one. A loss for the Spartans would hurt and pull them into a place they don’t want to be come East Coast Conference tournament time: THE BUBBLE!! Credit to Daemen, winners of 11 straight, however the Wildcats just don’t have the resume for at-large consideration.
Saturday, February 23 @ 1:30: #2 Bentley @ #7 Merrimack
You don’t ever want to go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line. One thing coaches should shy away from is going up against Barbara Stevens when an NCAA tournament at-large bid is potentially in the balance. If Merrimack loses Wednesday, this is a very tough ask, but if the Warriors win that game, they’re playing with house money.
Let us switch to the men and take a look at TMAC’s Definitive Top 8.
1) Daemen (21-3): The Wildcats will solidify their place on the one-line with a win in Sparkill Friday, but a loss would open the door to the team that found an old Guers. LOCK
2) St. Anselm (19-4): The demise of the Hawks and their star Tim Guers was greatly exaggerated. LOCK
3) New Haven (17-7): Finally, a team under the top two has slightly separated itself. The Chargers should be in LOCK territory next week.
4) Le Moyne (14-8): The Dolphins' loss at home to a struggling but capable SCSU team isn’t the end of the world, but it is a wake-up call that this group still has work to do to garner an NCAA bid.
5) Merrimack (17-8): The Dolphins are projected to face the Warriors in a first-round NCAA tournament game. The last time that happened, Merrimack was an 8-seed and shocked #1 Le Moyne, two years ago.
6) St. Thomas Aquinas (19-5): Tobin Anderson can lock his team up a bid to the NCAAs with a win over Daemen this week.
7) Adelphi (18-8): Adelphi handled Pace in OT and now has a chance to win the Southwest Division of the NE10. It stands tied with New Haven and a half-game ahead of Le Moyne, but the path is doable for the Panthers.
8) Bentley (17-8): While it was a disappointing week, the distance between the top eight and nine is still quite large.
Blink once for yes, and twice for no:
Jefferson (18-6): 13 wins in a row against a lot of mediocre CACC teams. The Rams need to get to the seven seed and I don’t see a way for them to do that. But for now, we’ll keep them in our teams with an at-large chance.
Pace (15-10): Pace will finish over .500 this year and it may win a game in the NE10 tourney, but the only way the Setters dance is by winning their conference tournament.
Southern Connecticut (16-10): If this week isn’t a microcosm of the Owls’ season, I don’t know what is. They lost at home to a struggling AIC group then went on the road and knocked off the #3 team in last week’s poll, Le Moyne. We’ve knocked the Owls off of our board for at-large consideration.
Games to Watch:
Tuesday February 19 @ 7:30: Dominican @ Bloomfield
Saturday February 23 @ 3:00: Jefferson @ Bloomfield
Two big home games for Gerald Holmes and his Bears this week against the two best teams in the CACC not named Bloomfield. First place in the CACC North is up for grabs on Tuesday, where a win for Dominican would sweep the season series and put Joe Clinton’s boys into the driver seat for first. Winning the North Division is a huge advantage as that team will play the #4 in the South Division and avoid any possible match-up with Jefferson until the championship round. Speaking of the Rams, they drop by the House That Dabney Built on Saturday. If Bloomfield loses both, then that brings Caldwell - winners of seven straight - into the mix for second place in the CACC North.
Wednesday February 20 @ 7:30: #4 Le Moyne @ Pace
The Setters may be eliminated for the NE10 Southwest Division title, but they are still a factor in which team raises the banner come next season. I’d fully expect this to be a game in which the Dolphins want revenge against a Pace program that won in Syracuse earlier this season. This is a must-win for Le Moyne if it wants to stay off the dreaded bubble.
Friday February 22 @ 7:30: #1 Daemen @ #6 STAC
I can’t wait to see the two best ECC teams clash. This one has major ramifications for both clubs. The Wildcats need to keep rolling to maintain what I see is a slim advantage over St. Anselm, and the Spartans have something to prove. When you play in the Toll Booth, anything can happen!
Saturday February 23 @ 3:30: #8 Bentley @ # 5 Merrimack
The Falcons can sweep the season series with a W and pick up a much-needed road triumph. At press time, they have lost four of five conference road games with the only win being a one-point victory at Assumption. They won’t fall off the 8-line with a loss. However, if they couple that with a loss Wednesday at St. Michael’s, then Jefferson could be "moving on up." Merrimack is fighting for the three-seed and, truth be told, this isn’t a must.
This week is just shuffling the deck until we get to conference tournament time.
I can’t thank the great staff at Caldwell enough for treating me with such hospitality this week. I’m not sure there’s a nicer man in athletics than the Cougars' Director of Athletic Media Relations, John Tagliaferri.
Until later this week, Happy Hooping!!