The regular season has concluded and that means the NCAA East Regionals are right around the corner. In this edition of the Musings, we’ll discuss what has happened in the NE10 tournament thus far and what it means for the Definitive Top 8. The ECC and CACC will begin this week and we’ll tell you what to expect. It’s been an interesting year and we’ll discuss why the top eight, barring anything unpredictable, are solid. Who will be left out? Who needs to fade the upset to avoid getting left out of the dance? Those questions and more coming up, but first we talk about some miscellaneous topics.
The Musings would like to be the first to welcome The College of Staten Island to the East Coast Conference. CSI (the school not the television show) has applied to the NCAA for Division II membership, which by all accounts is a formality. If accepted (we’ll know in July), CSI would honor its 2019-‘20 competitive schedules, predominantly made up of CUNYAC and NCAA Division III competition. Its’ entry into ECC block scheduling and the adaptation to a full Division II schedule would occur in 2020-21. The addition would mean a second Dolphin team in the region but, unlike Le Moyne, which wears green and gold, this Dolphins team prefers blue and black. The ECC will have nine teams next year, which will give its members plenty of opportunity to schedule up. Speaking of new teams in Division II, Emmanuel College (GA) began membership this year. Now if we can just figure out a way for them to play Lewis (IL) we can have that Emmanuel-Lewis contest that I know our loyal readers have been asking for.
I recently talked to a coach who bemoaned the fact the NE10 will be losing Merrimack which means the Northeast Division will lose two conference games and the Southwest will part with one match. The result is a 19-game conference schedule. The Musings went to the drawing board and figured a way for every team to play 20 league games. Both divisions will consist of seven teams and each plays one game against each club in the opposite division. How about playing a second game against the team that finishes in the same slot in the standings? For this year it would mean Saint Anselm would play a second league game against Le Moyne on the men’s side and we’d be privileged enough to get Le Moyne vs. Bentley in the ladies’ half. Who wouldn’t want to see that? If you take the Warriors out and bump every other team up one you get some very interesting games. Certain schools could help their strength of schedule while others, who finish near the bottom, would get an opportunity for a win. I’d love to see Bentley and New Haven on the men’s docket in a second regular season affair. The CACC could also do this as they also have 14 teams in two seven-team divisions. Had the Bloomfield men had played Jefferson twice and swept (or vice versa) the CACC could be talking about getting an at-large.
Before we get to the women’s rankings and the week that was on behalf of everyone here at d2easthoops.org, I’d like to apologize for the mobile site being down. Presto Sports has told us it has experienced major problems with many of its sites and while this is the worst time of the year for us to have any glitches. Please know that we understand (and share) your frustration. We hope the problem gets fixed ASAP.
TMAC DEFINITIVE TOP 8
1) Sciences: 27-1 - The Devils will be in heaven playing in the Bobby Morgan Arena but to do so they need win out. That means a victory Tuesday at home vs. Felician in the first round of the CACC tournament. The Golden Falcons are a shell of the team that nearly upset Jackie Hartzell’s charge in early January. A repeat as the CACC Tournament champs is a must as of now!
2) Bentley 27-2 - Based on how much value the East Region women’s committee has put on head-to-head, the Falcons shouldn’t be able to host. Remember, Sciences went into Waltham and defeated Barbara Stevens and company in the first of a back-to-back-to-back sweep of three formidable NE10 opponents. While that may be the committee’s reality, it isn’t mine. If Bentley wins out and Sciences doesn’t win the CACC, the Falcons should host. Next up is a Thursday contest versus St. Anselm. Bentley swept the season series and hasn’t lost at home to the Hawks since the 1994-‘95 campaign. Starting in the 1996-‘97school year, Bentley is a mind-boggling 46-2 vs. its semifinal opponent.
3) Jefferson 26-2 - The Rams are moving on up in the Definitive Top 8. They should be locked into the three so as long as they get to the CACC Final. If Bentley were to lose in the NE10 semifinals and Tom Shirley’s squad were to win the CACC one could make an interesting case to move the Rams to two but hosting would require some pretty creative accounting. Jefferson will host Post in the first round.
4) Le Moyne 22-5- Here’s a great question for the committee - since being 2-0 against an opponent is so important, if Le Moyne were to defeat Bentley in the NE10 net-cutting game, shouldn’t they be ahead of the Falcons? If the answer is no, the committee is telling us they made a mistake with the Merrimack/SNHU fiasco that luckily played itself out as I predicted. The Dolphins are 9-0 against regionally-ranked teams. New Haven comes to town Thursday in the other NE10 semifinal. The Dolphins will try to extract a measure of revenge against UNH, which defeated Le Moyne nine days prior to this meeting. I feel like we’d all be ripped if we didn’t get a second match-up of Falcons/Dolphins. UNH needs to win the NE10 tournament to get into the dance.
5) Saint Thomas Aquinas 26-3 - Kim Lusk’s group have met every challenge and it’s hard to imagine them losing in the ECC tournament. The Spartans get a bye in the first round and will face the winner of LIU Post/Roberts Wesleyan in the semis in Bridgeport on Saturday. STAC is likely destined for the 4/5 game no matter what happens in the ECC’s.
6) Saint Anselm 19-8 - Here’s the deal - if the Hawks win at Bentley, they will be the six-seed. If they lose, they will be tied in overall record and in-region record with Stonehill and should be ahead in every other category. There is a chance Stonehill could nip them in Performance Indicator but we’re talking the slimmest of margins. Here’s another factor - there is virtually no chance they will make two teams play for fourth time in the first-round of the NCAA tournament. It’s nearly unprecedented with a 64-team field.
7) Stonehill 19-9 - The Musings knows that the Skyhawks have hit a wall and are probably a year away but what a year it has been for Trish Brown and the gang! An upset loss to UNH in the quarterfinal round of the NE10 tourney shouldn’t dampen what has been a fantastic and somewhat unexpected season. The problem for the committee is that teams 6, 7, and 8 are all not only in the same conference as Bentley but also the same division.
8) Merrimack 20-10 - The Warriors are locked into the eight and have completed their season. They are in the tenuous position of rooting for the failure of teams ranked below them that would steal their at-large by winning a conference tournament. That means UNH, anyone not named Sciences and Jefferson in the CACC, and every team not called STAC in the ECC.
PREDICTIONS:
I like Bentley to win the NE10 tournament, STAC to capture the ECC crown and Sciences to cut down the CACC nets. There is no team other than the top eight that has a chance of an at-large. Only the top five are locks, as 6-8 are all vulnerable.
As we shift to the men’s half let us first look at my rankings:
TMAC DEFINITIVE TOP 8
1) Saint Anselm 22-5 - The Hawks lost at home to Southern Connecticut in the NE10 quarterfinals. That shouldn’t drop them off the one-line for now however they should have a sweat to host the regional. It wasn’t too long ago that last 10 games W/L was a category. It isn’t anymore and that’s a benefit to St. A’s.
2) Daemen 24-4 - The Wildcats pass my eye test and SHOULD host if they win out in the ECC tournament. Here’s the reality - the committee is punishing the ECC for having LIU Post in their conference. Take the Pioneers out of the Daemen’s SOS and the ranking skyrockets. I’ve heard from past committee members that common sense is a factor but over the past few years the National Committee has done no favors to the ECC. I don’t expect that to change even though it should. I would strongly suggest the Wildcats don’t lose, because if they do one can make a strong case to drop them to three if New Haven or Le Moyne wins the NE10 tournament.
3) Le Moyne 18-8 - The Dolphins have had a fantastic year; I think Pat Beilein did his best coaching job this season and that comes after back-to-back NE10 Coach of the Year Awards. The squad could move up to two or could drop to four depending on the results of the final week. Next up is a conference semifinal game versus Merrimack on Wednesday in Syracuse. The Warriors won the only game at home between these two in January.
4) New Haven 19-8 - New Haven and Le Moyne could play for a month and it’s possible the score would be tied when they finish. When I broadcast the game between these two last week I said “right now they are the two best teams in the conference and could very well play in the title game.” I stand by that prediction. UNH also could get to the two-seed, and four is as low as they can be. The Chargers will host Southern Connecticut in a Havenly battle in the NE10 semis on Wednesday in West Haven.
5) St. Thomas Aquinas 23-5 - The Spartans are also getting punished for playing in the ECC. One can make a pretty legit case to move Merrimack to five if for no other reason than to not have two teams play twice in a little over a week. Next up for STAC is an ECC semifinal contest versus with Molloy or the District of Columbia.
6) Merrimack 20-9 - I can’t imagine the Warriors missing the field but if STAC were to win the ECC tournament and the Warriors lose to Le Moyne they should be a lock at six. A win over the Dolphins sweeps the season series and muddies the seedings.
7) Bentley 19-10 - The Falcons did themselves no favors by losing to New Haven in the quarterfinals of the NE10 tournament. They are in the danger zone. Now they turn into fans of the Chargers to defeat Southern Connecticut.
8) Bloomfield/CACC Champion - I have Bloomfield as my eight this week, but the Bears still need to win out to secure a spot. First up in the CACC tournament is Wilmington on Tuesday. Last season, Gerald Holmes’ team was upset in the first round vs. Sciences. I don’t see that happening this March.
OUT: Adelphi 19-10 - Oh, what a difference a week can make! The Panthers lost on the road to American International to close out the regular season and followed that up by getting bounced by Merrimack out of the NE10 tourney.
PREDICTIONS:
Picking conference tournaments is always tricky but in the CACC if you ever pick against Gerald Holmes or Herb Magee you’re asking for trouble. I like those two to get to the final with Bloomfield advancing. In the ECC, the clear best two teams are STAC and Daemen. The Wildcats can’t play worse than they did in the Toll Booth last week and I expect Daemen to win this league. Meanwhile in the NE10, I’m sticking with a UNH/Le Moyne title game, but I’m going to pick UNH to pull the upset in Syracuse.
Many have reached out of the past few weeks. I appreciate everybody and the love they have showed for this little column! It means the world. Broadcasting duties in the CACC beckon this weekend. If you’re near Caldwell say hello! We may have a midweek musing if time allows. We will have a regular column next Monday in which we’ll go over the East region and make our first round picks! Hope you all stay warm and safe this week! Happy Hooping everyone!!