It was a relatively uneventful week, all things considered, but have no fear, we still have an in-depth McCaffrey’s Musings! We begin with the Top 8 on the men’s side and two other squads that are making a great case for inclusion!
Musings’ Everlasting Eight (Overall Record/Last Week’s movement)
1) Bridgeport (20-2) LOCK: If familiarity breeds contempt, then my loyal readers are probably sick of UB being number one. A great non-league schedule combined with the most wins against the top 10 means UB will be on this line as long as they don’t lose to a team not called St. Thomas Aquinas! Think about this: District of Columbia has held second-half leads vs. Daemen, STAC, and UB and been in every game against those three at home. The Purple Knights survived Washington, DC, which is what they had to do. 16 Ws in a row should be 18 by the time the Spartans come to town next week! This Week: @ New York Tech, Wednesday; @ Molloy, Saturday
2) Jefferson (22-2) ⬆️1 LOCK: The Rams move on up one spot after an undefeated week thanks to a glowing resume and a STAC loss. The Rams are a distant two, despite clipping UB early in the campaign at home. While Jefferson dominates columns (majority being very close) with the Spartans, the same can’t be said when you look at UB vs. Jefferson by the numbers. This Week: vs. Georgian Court, Tuesday; @ Chestnut Hill, Saturday
3) St. Thomas Aquinas (20-4) ⬇️1 LOCK: The Spartans have had some crazy comebacks this season, but they just couldn’t pull off the miracle at Daemen. The hangover lasted for a half in Rochester, where Roberts Wesleyan led at the break, only to see the Spartans spring from their slumber. I expect this group to win both this week and have another great game at UB after that. This Week: @ Queens, Wednesday; NYIT, Saturday
4) Le Moyne (18-7) Just when ya think the Dolphins are going to earn the cherished LOCK status, they drop a home affair to Adelphi. The loss doesn’t move Le Moyne off the four-line, but it does hold off a Musings guaranteed trip to the dance. Barring a loss in the birthplace of basketball this week, the Dolphins will have punched their ticket by weeks end. This Week: @ AIC, Wednesday
5) St. Anselm (15-8) The Hawks procured a tough win over Southern New Hampshire and are rewarded with two road games this week. In the process, they’ve gained density for the NE10 Northeast Division title. Two more wins should be enough to earn the last LOCK heading into postseason play. This Week: @ Franklin Pierce, Wednesday; @ Saint Michael’s, Saturday
6) Stonehill (15-10) The bottom of the bracket could have two teams with double-figure loses and it will almost certainly have one. The Skyhawks are #1 in the region in SOS and that means they can afford that many defeats, but I wouldn’t suggest losing more than once the rest of the way, and that includes postseason. In a schedule quirk, this group will have completed regular season play before anyone else in the region after Saturday. This Week: @ St. Michael's, Wednesday; vs. SNHU, Saturday
7) Daemen (21-6) The Wildcats buoyed their chances with a big win over STAC Friday. They have three regular-season games left with teams that are a combined 20 games under .500. If they don’t slip up they are solidly in the field. This Week: vs. UDC, Friday
8) Dominican (19-5) The gap closed between eight and six, but it also shrunk between the Chargers and two clubs trying to get into the field. The problem for DC is a 1-2 record against the top 10. This is all solved if it wins the CACC tournament. This Week: vs. Bloomfield, Tuesday; @ Caldwell, Saturday
On the outside… For Now!
Franklin Pierce (14-8) and Adelphi (18-7) bridged the divide with marquee wins last week. The Panthers picked up a high-quality triumph at Le Moyne and held off a game Saint Rose contingent in Garden City. It’s a tough week for Adelphi, as the Panthers can’t afford a blemish when hosting Pace on Wednesday and traveling to New Haven on Saturday. The Ravens benefit from a 95-61 romp in Rindge over Adelphi but remember - scores don’t matter! Pierce has a really tough week that could propel the Ravens into the top eight should there be any upsets. Wednesday is a double-whammy type of game as a win over St. A’s would catapult the Ravens while adding water to the boat of the Hawks. Saturday they travel to the Waltham and challenge the Bentley Falcons. An undefeated week is a must for both. At this time, there are no other teams that are in realistic contention for an at-large bid.
MUSINGS GAME OF THE WEEK
Wednesday, February 19
#5 Saint Anselm @ Franklin Pierce: There is virtually no path for Pierce with a loss to the Hawks in what will be the Ravens' Senior Night. Pierce is 9-1 at home, while the Hawks are 3-7 on the road. The Ravens lost a stunner in the first meeting and can avenge that here with a hand-raise. A Hawks win nearly solidifies their spot in the East Region field.
And with that, let’s move on the women’s portion of the Musings.
Musings' Nifty Nine
1) Adelphi (23-2) LOCK: Barring something unforeseen the NCAA road will go through Garden City. Two tricky contests lurk. The Panthers passed the test with a great road victory at Le Moyne last week! This Week: vs. Pace, Wednesday; @ New Haven, Saturday
2) USciences (22-3) The Devils are clinging to the two-line. It’s almost a wash but the reason I’m keeping this group two will be evident down below when we go inside the numbers. Winners of 16 in a row, the Devils can avenge their last loss (Dec. 3) when they welcome Holy Family to Bobby’s place. This Week: Holy Family, Tuesday; Wilmington, Saturday
3) Stonehill (17-5) Like the men’s squad, the ladies of Stonehill will conclude their regular season this week. 24 NCAA Division 2 games played for the Skyhawks is a little bit light but why ruin one of the best schedules in region history? There's still a chance to move up and an opportunity to host, should this group win out. This Week: @ St. Michael's, Wednesday; vs. SNHU, Saturday
4) Bentley (16-7) ⬆️2 Eventually, we’ll all come to realize that when you play a tough schedule, it hardens you for the tough games down the stretch and into the postseason. Bentley, with the #2 SOS in-region and ninth nationally, is situated where it needs to be. Two home games on the horizon should be Ws for the ladies of Waltham. This Week: vs. Assumption, Wednesday; vs. Franklin Pierce, Saturday
5) St. Anselm (16-6) ⬇️1 It’s déjà vu all over again for the Hawks, whose season appears to be just slightly more stable than last year’s. Truth is, St. A’s is solidly in, but can’t afford to lose to either team it plays this week as both would be considered bad losses. This Week: @ Franklin Pierce, Wednesday; @ St. Michael’s, Saturday
6) Daemen (20-3) ⬆️2 The Wildcats finally secured a marquee win against STAC, a group we’ll talk about in a moment. The committee will have a lot to think about when it comes to this team, but I think by my calculations, the Wildcats should be sixth. You can’t make a strong case for them to be higher unless you’re fudging the numbers, but you also can’t make a strong case for them to be lower. Only one game this week and it’s against a team that shouldn’t be much trouble for the now first-place Wildcats. This Week: vs. UDC, Friday
7) Le Moyne (16-8) The Dolphins have simply struggled against the top teams. That being said, they have played a competitive schedule. However, when you go inside the numbers, you find pros and cons. Three more Ws should be enough in whatever form they come This Week: @ AIC, Wednesday
8) St. Thomas Aquinas (18-3) ⬇️3 ‘Western New York is lovely this time of year,’ said nobody in Sparkill after an 0-2 road trip. The Spartans have a very favorable schedule going forward and can’t afford a loss. If Molloy doesn’t sit 10th, both Daemen and STAC have record problems against the Top 10. This Week: @ Queens, Wednesday; NYIT, Saturday
9) Pace (18-7) Pace has the schedule that is most challenging of any team in the regional mix going forward. A win at Adelphi would put Pace in the field next week barring a loss to AIC. This Week: @ Adelphi, Wednesday; vs. AIC Saturday
Molloy would once again round out the top 10. The Lions have a path, should they win out to the finals of the ECC and beat Daemen in the regular season and either the Wildcats or STAC in the ECC tournament. Two games this week for the Lions: at Mercy, Wednesday and in Rockville Centre Saturday against Bridgeport.
MUSINGS GAME OF THE WEEK
Wednesday, February 19
#9 Pace @ #1 Adelphi: I was at the first meeting between these two and the Panthers easily handled the Setters despite a valiant fourth quarter effort by the hosts. Pace won’t be out of the conversation with a loss, and who knows what the committee will say, but there are some problems with numbers if you’re a Setters fan and hope they will get an at-large bid!
WARNING: The following information is rated R….. for exposure of teams who played great schedules and those who didn’t. The Musings spends a lot of time crunching numbers…. and cheetos….. but I digress. Below is a list of my Top 10 teams. The first number is strength of schedule out of all 316 Division II women’s basketball teams. The second number is the winning percentage in non-conference games against in-region Division II schools. The final number is the overall winning percentage against all non-conference opponents (D2). SOS has, in the past, been a needle-mover. I’ll explain more below.
1) Adelphi #47 SOS; .519 vs. In Region D2; non-con .519 vs all non-con
2) USciences #167 SOS; .690; .690
3) Stonehill #1 SOS; .763; .797
4) Bentley #9 SOS; .610; .595
5) St. A’s #105 SOS; .250; .396
6) Daemen #292 SOS; .358; .365
7) Le Moyne #14 SOS; .489; .566
8) STAC #149 SOS; .477; .477
9) Pace #178 SOS; .415; .415
10) Molloy #29 SOS; .540; .540
This shows just how rough a season the CACC has endured. Sciences has one of the best non-con schedules in the nation, by virtue of having not played one team .500 or worse, and the national SOS will be around 150 by season’s end. However, you can’t say that the Devils were not challenged. If you’re in the ECC and CACC, you have to find ways to play teams that are traditionally strong. St. Anselm only played four in-region, non-conference games, but the Hawks have nearly a top 100 SOS due to a couple of tough out-of-region games and a killer divisional schedule. This is the reason you have to reward the programs that continue to go out of their way to schedule the best. Rewarding clubs that just schedule to get Ws in comparison to programs that try to play a competitive schedule is what it’s all about. But what will the regional committee say??
TMAC Deep Thoughts:
On Wednesday, the official NCAA Regional Rankings come out and I’ll try to analyze them as best as possible. If the past is any indication, our numbers should mirror the NCAA’s and that means a fairly accurate ranking. Look for a rare Midweek Musings Wednesday or Thursday, depending on when the Rankings drop!
I leave you this week with a quote from the late Richard Feynman: “The easiest person to fool is yourself. The trick is not to do it.”
Think about it!
See a mistake, want to tell me how wrong I am, or just want to say hello? Drop me a note at tpmccaffrey@gmail.com. Until next time, Happy Hooping!