McCaffrey’s Musings doesn’t want to waste any time… let’s begin with the men’s basketball poll!
Musings Evaporating Eight (Overall Record/Last Week’s movement)
1) Bridgeport (19-2) LOCK: The Purple Knights are a clear #1 after improving to 7-1 vs. the Musings Top 10, by far the best mark of any competitor. This team isn’t a lock to host the regional but the only box it doesn't check is strength of schedule, which is in large part due to the ECC. I fully expect the regional to go through Harvey Hubbell Gymnasium on UB’s campus. This Week: @ UDC, Saturday.
2) St. Thomas Aquinas (19-3) LOCK: The Spartans get the nod at two for one reason, a win at Jefferson early in the season. The SOS, overall record, in-region record, record vs. the Top 10, RPI and common opponents are all razor thin with seemingly neither team having an advantage. For my money, that means STAC should be two. This Week: @ Daemen, Friday; @ Roberts Wesleyan, Sunday.
3) Jefferson (20-2) LOCK: The Rams are closer to one than four but without a team over .500 on the schedule in the last six CACC games, it means that 13-game winning stretch better become 19 heading into postseason play if the Rams want any shot to move up. Watch out for a potential let down game Wednesday after a thrilling OT triumph at Post Saturday! This Week: @ Wilmington, Wednesday; vs. Nyack, Saturday.
4) Le Moyne (17-6): The Dolphins are on a comfortable island in the middle of the field, at the moment, but after a hand-raise over New Haven on Saturday there are no easy games on the docket this week. This group is an undefeated week away from securing lock status. This Week: vs. Adelphi, Tuesday; @ SCSU, Saturday.
5) St. Anselm (14-8) ⬆️1: Speaking of paper-thin margins I have no problem flipping five and six, but since we have to make a decision, the Hawks, by virtue of a convincing win over Stonehill this past week, move up one spot. One thing is clear, according to my numbers: Keith Dickson and company are significantly ahead of seven and eight in every column with the exception of winning percentage. In a conference where winning streaks go to die, the Hawks have mustered the league’s longest current one with four. Rivalry week awaits!! This Week: SNHU, Tuesday.
6) Stonehill (14-9) ⬇️1L The Skyhawks will likely settle in the middle of the bracket when it’s all said and done, but they still have some work to do. 5-4 vs. the top 10, the best in-region SOS and a lofty RPI are three factors that buoy the cause. Tricky week ahead! This Week: @ Franklin Pierce, Wednesday; vs. Assumption, Saturday.
7) Daemen (19-6): The Wildcats have benefitted from standing tall against all the teams with 150+ RPI’s and Daemen has the lion’s share of those 19 wins against teams that have struggled. The record against the in-region top 10 is 1-5, but when you add the two wins that the ‘Cats have played against teams outside the region (likely be in their respective top 10's, West Liberty and Mercyhurst) and the loss to defending national champions Northwest Missouri State, that record becomes 3-6, which is significant. Daemen plays our feature game this week and it doesn’t have to win it to remain in the top eight, but it’s the last chance to face a team over .500 and impress the committee during the regular season. This Week: vs. STAC, Friday; vs. Mercy, Sunday.
8) Dominican (17-5) ⬆️1; The beneficiary of Bentley’s downturn - the Chargers! The perilous eight slot is the one that can be taken by a team not projected to be in the field by virtue of winning one of the three Automatic Qualifiers up for grabs. Joe Clinton and company have a resume that is worth noting but lacks the depth of teams ahead. For example, in SOS the Chargers are 267. In addition, the group has played by far the fewest number of games against the regional top 10 (three) of all teams in my top 10. The squad is 1-2 vs. the region, which includes an impressive conquest in the ‘Toll Booth’ against STAC. According to my Performance Indicator, Dominican deserves to be in, but no higher than eighth. They have six games remaining and the toughest could be on Wednesday. Fans of this column know I’ve been high on this team and it peaked at #1 after that STAC win, but the Chargers are a team capable of repeating as CACC champion. The big issue with the resume are losses to Concordia and Felician, two teams that have combined for a 12-31 record. This Week: vs. Post, Wednesday; @ Goldey-Beacom, Saturday.
WAY Outside: Bentley, Franklin Pierce, Adelphi, Pace, New Haven, Post.
Shall we look at the big things before we break down the little ones? Bentley, which would be ninth, is not particularly close to getting into the field. After losing six of eight, the Falcons are a team that needs to win in a hurry. All of the other teams on the outside would need a major collapse from a team in the field to go along with a significant winning streak just to get back into the mix of being considered for an at-large bid.
Of the teams on the outside, New Haven may be the best via the eye test. I don’t expect the Chargers to lose another regular season game. That kind of momentum could be the catalyst that snowballs into a SNHU-type run circa 2015, when the Penmen got in by virtue of the winning the NE10 and upsetting host Holy Family in the first round of the NCAA's.
MUSINGS GAME OF THE WEEK
Friday, February 14
#2 St. Thomas Aquinas @ #7 Daemen: This is the last chance for Daemen to separate itself from Dominican and demonstrate it deserves deeper consideration for a higher seed. I can see the Spartans settling in on the three-line with a loss, but the future looks bright. Its’ almost impossible for Tobin Anderson and his troops to not wear the home jerseys in the first round of the big dance. There is the potential that these two teams could meet four times this season, which would be a lot of fun. Round one went to STAC in Rockland County.
We save the ladies for the second half in this edition. I have never seen a team come from nowhere like Stonehill did this week. The Skyhawks have made a case for the two-line. If this team keeps winning and Adelphi slips up twice, hear me now and quote me later, “The regional will be in North Easton!” We’re keeping the women’s poll at nine because I make the rules here in Musingville!! Please Note: Records are against Division II teams only. NAIA, DIII, and DI games do not count.
Musings Nebulous Nine
1) Adelphi (20-2) LOCK: The Panthers appear have the most complete resume and deserve to host. Even a loss in Syracuse shouldn’t move the Panthers from the one-seed. This Week: @ LeMoyne, Tuesday; vs. Saint Rose, Saturday.
2) USciences (20-3); The devil is in the details when it comes to seeding. For now, Sciences is two, but as I look into the future I see Stonehill having this spot as early as next week. You can make a case that, by virtue of their win over the Devils, Stonehill should be two already. This Week: @ Georgian Court, Wednesday; @ Felician, Saturday.
3) Stonehill (15-5) ⬆️2; What a week! Wins over Bentley and at St Anselm propel the Skyhawks into the hosting mix. The #1 SOS in the nation, a top-flight RPI and a soaring PI make this group the best in the region as it stands right now. Long way to go, but if you believe in trends, take Stonehill. This Week: @ Franklin Pierce, Wednesday; Assumption, Saturday.
4) St. Anselm (16-5) ⬇️1; The Hawks are in a great position to defend their regional crown despite Saturday’s loss. Playing only 25 regular-season games is a disadvantage but it worked last season! 4-2 vs. the top 10 combined with a big victory over the region’s top team give this contingent a clear advantage. This Week: vs. SNHU, Tuesday.
5) St. Thomas Aquinas (18-3) ⬆️1; When does it get to the point that a home loss against the team one slot behind doesn’t change your positioning? This is that week. The bottom line is this: Stonehill and Bentley will not meet in the first round of the NCAA’s. This Week: @ Daemen, Friday; @ Roberts Wesleyan, Sunday
6) Bentley (16-7) ⬇️2; There’s no need to worry for Falcon fans, Bentley is solidly in the dance. The problem is a 4-5 record against the top 10. Bentley is 5-3 versus common opponents compared to STAC at 7-2. This Week: @ SNHU, Saturday
7) Le Moyne (15-7); The Dolphins have the third best SOS in the region, a top-5 RPI and destiny. When you control your fate it’s a liberating feeling. This Week: vs. Adelphi, Tuesday; @ SCSU, Saturday.
8) Daemen (18-3) ⬆️1; Fans of the Wildcats will be pleased that the definitive rankings moved this squad into the eight-slot. Winning 10 straight is wonderful, but a SOS of 302 (of 312) is not. To quote the late Al Davis: “Just Win Baby!” This Week: vs. STAC, Friday; vs. Mercy Sunday.
9) Pace (17-7) ⬇️1; The Setters have more wins against the Top 10 than Daemen, and a significantly better SOS, but that’s where the good news ends. I don’t necessarily agree with the system, but if it’s done fairly, Pace is on the outside looking in at the moment. The good news is that Pace has two games left against the top 10, the bad news is they both on the road (Adelphi/Le Moyne). This Week: vs. SCSU, Tuesday.
Molloy would round out the top ten thanks in large part to the 4th-best in-region SOS. Playing quality opposition matters, and Joe Pellicane and his Lions are not even close to being out of the mix for at-large consideration. In fact, Molloy continues its’ home stand (six of seven ECC home games) this week. I think if they win out and defeat Daemen twice they are easily ahead of the Wildcats. That’s a long row to hoe but it’s more than possible. New York Tech is another team that could be a tough out from the ECC tournament but its’ ship has sailed for at-large concerns. The only other group that could make a run is New Haven. The Chargers travel to Saint Rose (7-15) on Wednesday and host American International (7-17) on Saturday. Lurking in the distance is a finale against Adelphi. To be the best, you have to beat the best!
Only two games of note this week on the women’s agenda, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have any upsets along the way!
Tuesday, February 11
#1 Adelphi @ #7 Le Moyne: This contest means a heck of a lot more to Le Moyne than the Panthers and when that happens it’s hard to gauge which club will respond. It’s one of the last opportunities to see McKayla Roberts play and that is worth the price of admission.
Friday, February 14
#5 STAC @ #8 Daemen: Daemen should win this game. STAC has had issues wining on the road and seemingly everyone has trouble on the Western New York swing. Perhaps next year the Wildcats could make this easy and step up the schedule a little bit. And by little I mean a LOT.
TMAC Deep Thoughts:
Kudos to Jeff Fox, Craig Lastres and Greg Quirolo who officiated this past week’s Daemen vs. Bridgeport heavyweight contest. Great game plan and officiating in a battle that had an NCAA tourney feel.
Speaking of officials, three DII mainstays have filed a lawsuit against several Division I conferences and our region’s NE10 Conference for age discrimination. The officials (Robert Barker, Dennis Allocco and Michael Pilla) brought their complaint last week in Manhattan Supreme Court. “All three continue to receive highly favorable evaluations of their refereeing skills,” the 27-page filing states. “However, despite his continuing exemplary referring performance, the number of game assignments plaintiffs recently have received have declined precipitously.”
I talked to a number officials this week and every one told me they have a great case. Coaches told me they have a great case and my eyes tell me they have a great case. In my judgment, the NE10 has seen a precipitous drop in the caliber of officiating, and that is a shame.
For more on this developing story click here: https://www.courthousenews.com/older-referees-says-ncaa-black-balled-them-from-d-1/
See a mistake, want to tell me how wrong I am or if you just want to say hello? Drop me a note at tpmccaffrey@gmail.com. Until next time, Happy Hooping!