McCaffrey’s Musings starts…. NOW!!!
What a week! Upsets all around and lots of movement in my women’s rankings, where we add a pair of LOCKs to the NCAA field, but we begin with the men and the Top 8 according to my calculations.
Musings Eight (Overall Record/Last Week’s movement)
1) Bridgeport (23-3) LOCK: The race to host is over. Two wins on the week, including a toppling of St. Thomas Aquinas. The regional will be hosted at the “Hub” for the first time ever. Party in Bridgeport, you earned it! The Musings talked to twenty-year UB head coach Mike Ruane and we’ll have a transcript of that below. This Week: @ ECC Tournament Semifinals, Sat.
2) St. Thomas Aquinas (23-5) LOCK: ⬆️1 The Spartans move up one spot thanks to a 1-1 week and a shocking loss by last week’s placeholder of this position. The range for STAC is limited to this line or the three. This Week: @ ECC Tournament Semifinals, Sat.
3) Jefferson (25-3) LOCK: ⬇️1 The final game of the CACC regular-season schedule is rivalry day. That can make for some upsets and the Holy Family Tigers bit the Rams. A victory in the CACC tournament could propel the Rams to two as long as STAC doesn’t win a game in its’ conference tourney. It’s unlikely the Rams land lower than the three-line. This Week: vs. Felician, Tues. (1st Round CACC)
4) St. Anselm (19-8) LOCK: ⬆️1 Congrats to Keith Dickson and his Hawks, who will be dancing once again this season. They are playing great basketball at the right time and have a chance to be the first NE10 team to twenty wins with a triumph Wednesday. This Week: vs. Franklin Pierce, Wed. (NE10 Semifinals)
5) Le Moyne (19-9) LOCK: ⬇️1 Two uninspired home efforts may give reason to worry for the Dolphin faithful but this contingent will be dancing come Selection Sunday! This Week: Idle
6) Stonehill (18-10): The Skyhawks are steady and avoided a long road trip to Syracuse thanks to New Haven’s win at Le Moyne. Can UNH ride its magic carpet to another upset? If the Skyhawks win Wednesday and face Saint Anselm in the NE10 title game they will be in either way. If they win and face Franklin Pierce and lose to the Ravens and the other two tournaments have upsets, then they’d be on the outside. However, if Stonehill doesn’t hold off a Charging UNH squad then things get MUCH more complex. A Skyhawk loss wouldn’t move them off the six necessarily, but it would open up this unlikely scenario. If UNH or FPU wins the NE10 and Daemen and Dominican were to win their respective tournaments, the Skyhawks would be left standing without a dance partner. This Week: vs. UNH, Wed. (NE10 Semifinals)
7) Daemen (23-7): A shocker in Old Westbury thanks to New York Tech didn’t drop the Wildcats but the margin is razor-thin with them and Dominican. This will play out over the next week. Daemen cannot lose its next game. The Wildcats may have to beat STAC in the ECC semifinals before they can feel safe. This Week: vs. Queens, Wed. (ECC 1st Round)
8) Dominican (22-6): The Chargers could use a DC 3-game winning streak this week to garner the Automatic Qualifier and avoid any speculation. Believe it or not, even a first-round CACC defeat wouldn’t drop Joe Clinton and company off the eight as long as there are no upsets. Two wins and a loss to Jefferson may not be enough however to be seven if Daemen were to have a like result in the ECC. If Dominican wins the CACC title and beats Jefferson in the process, the Chargers have a great case for seven if the Wildcats falter in the ECC semis. There are a lot of combinations but the key for Dominican is to have no upsets in any of the three regional conferences.
Two teams in the NE10 are hoping to crash the party. UNH and Franklin Pierce both need to win the conference tournament and, barring Dominican or Daemen losing in either’s initial postseason affair, I don’t see that changing even a little bit. We’ll have a breakdown of the regional rankings and an update on where everyone stands Thursday for the Midweek Musings.
I spoke with longtime Bridgeport Purple Knights head coach Mike Ruane about potentially hosting a regional.
Tim McCaffrey (TMAC): While it won’t be official until next Sunday Mike, my calculations are that the regional will go through UB this season. After 20 years as the men’s basketball coach, what does hosting mean to you?
Mike Ruane (MR): Well it’s about time!! When you think of all the great players I’ve had here from Rahmel Allen to Jermaine Clark and so many more, we’ve never hosted a regional. I’ve had so many great players, but I have to admit everyone else was right. I brought in too many transfers and not enough four-year players.
TMAC: So you’d say four-year players are the major difference?
MR: Absolutely. You bring them in and over time get them to understand what we’re trying to do. The team concept is much better with four-year players. You watch them grow. You can’t over-water them. Some grow differently and some surprise you but you let them all grow how they want to grow. With a lot of our guys you don’t see the roots, you only see the results, but the roots are what’s important.
TMAC: Back to hosting… I know there’s a lot going on at UB outside of athletics. How special is it to be able to accomplish hosting this year, especially after the last year’s disappointing season where you lost in the ECC tournament finals?
MR: I always thought you had to have the perfect season to host if you weren’t in the best conference but it’s the best pathway to win the regional. It’s what we’ve been trying to do. If you look at our first regional in 2003 at UMass-Lowell, the host won that.
TMAC: Mike, you know how much I admire the teams that go out and play the best. You were 4-0 against the NE10 with wins over St. Anselm, Stonehill and Bentley. How important is playing a tough schedule?
MR: It’s everything. Scheduling, recruiting, coaching. In that order. I think that every time you play an NE10 team, you have to treat it as an NCAA tournament game. Its validation that you can compete at that level.
TMAC: I think this is your best team - what’s been the secret to getting them to play as cohesively as they have?
MR: We don’t compete for players. If you want to play at Bridgeport you come to Bridgeport, but for the most part, we aren’t competing for the same players other schools are. We take who wants to come
TMAC: Have you used that underdog mentality to motivate. Has that played into the success?
MR: I’ve been in this league (NYCAC/ECC) since 1995 under Herb Magee (Philadelphia Textile). Herb hasn’t hosted a regional since 1993 when he lost to Stan (Spirou at then -New Hampshire College) at Saint Joe’s in a great game. I was there and saw that game and was fortunate enough to work for Herb. It’s really hard to host.
TMAC: How do you feel about having a week off before playing in the ECC semifinals? Are you worried about the long layoff?
MR: Rest is real. Momentum is real. We certainly don’t want to lose in that first ECC game, but I think the rest helps us, yet we need momentum also.
TMAC: What’s the biggest difference between Mike Ruane now and Mike say a few years ago?
MR: I’m sitting down a lot more. I’m more relaxed. I’ve blown games and seasons by the way I’ve behaved. I am trying to be more relaxed.
There is a lot of uncertainty as to how and if Bridgeport can hang on as a school over the next few years. Rumors like those make recruiting very difficult. The first regional in Harvey Hubbell Gymnasium is one everyone should embrace.
Let’s switch to the women, where the ECC owns the bottom half with a whopping four teams, but how many will dance?
Musings' Top 10
1) Adelphi (27-2) LOCK: Rinse, Wash, Repeat. The Panthers may be able to endure a semifinal loss and still host, but if they fall to Stonehill in a Sunday NE10 tourney clash, I think they can drop to two. This Week: vs. St. Anselm, Thurs. (NE10 Semifinals)
2) Stonehill (20-5) LOCK:Another 20-win season for Trish Brown and company. A loss Thursday, accompanied by a CACC title for Sciences could drop this group to three, but even that would be a close call. This Week: vs. Le Moyne, Thurs. (NE10 Semifinals)
3) USciences (25-3) LOCK: The Devils have had it on cruise control since late January, but with the CACC tournament at ‘Bobby’s Place” in University City, it’s hard to imagine the Devils suffer a blemish. This Week: vs. Nyack, Tues. (1st Round CACC)
4) St. Anselm (20-6) LOCK: ⬆️1 The Hawks are a lock after an undefeated week. This should be the ceiling. Even a loss Thursday shouldn’t move them out of the 4 vs. 5 game.This Week: @ Adelphi, Thurs; (NE10 Semifinals)
5) Bentley (19-9) LOCK: ⬇️1The Falcons’ descent should stop here, for now, depending on results of other games. Another Le Moyne win should be enough to drop the Falcons down another slot. This season is the first time since 2010 that Bentley has qualified for the NE10 tournament and hasn’t played in the title tilt. Quality schedule is enough for Barbara Stevens and her Falcons to be NCAA-bound. This Week: Idle
6) Le Moyne (19-8) LOCK: ⬆️1 The Dolphins season was hanging in the balance in the closing moments in Syracuse on Sunday. McKayla Roberts, last year’s regional MOP, hit a season-saving three-point shot to propel her team into coveted LOCK status. While I can see Le Moyne playing out of the seven-seed, or as high as the 4-5 game, the Dolphins will be dancing. If they had lost, it is likely they would have missed the field, which shows just how close the bottom half is. This Week: @ Stonehill, Thurs. (NE10 Semifinals)
7) St. Thomas Aquinas (21-6) ⬆️1 It was a very interesting weekend in the ECC, during which STAC ended up in first place. The Spartans are in a cluster of four ECC teams fighting for one or two spots depending on what happens in the CACC. Le Moyne was behind STAC in last week’s regional rankings but while the Dolphins were getting two quality wins this week (Pace/Bentley), STAC was playing out the schedule against Bridgeport and UDC, two teams that are a combined 14-42. The committee would have to answer some serious questions if STAC isn’t on this line. This Week: vs. Molloy/Roberts Wesleyan, Sat. (ECC Semifinals @ UDC)
8) Molloy (20-7) ⬆️1 When you go out and schedule up and play tough teams, you deserve the spot over the team that doesn’t. A win on Wednesday is necessary and a win Saturday may be as well. It is a precarious position for the Lions but at this point they have earned entry to the field of 64. This Week: vs. Roberts Wesleyan, Wed. (ECC 1st Round)
9) Daemen (21-5) ⬇️3 The Wildcats have played 17 games away from Buffalo and have won 12 times. They have defeated one team with a winning record in those triumphs (Roberts Wesleyan). They had a chance to prove they belonged this past weekend and averaged 52 points at New York Tech and Molloy in two defeats. To make matters worse, the shiny 6-2 record against teams over 500 became 6-5. How did Daemen lose three games to teams over 500 this week? Nova Southeastern had a 2-0 week to go from one under to one over 500 and clinch a 500 or better record. That loss is crucial as it makes that column much closer than a week ago. The bottom line is with one of the worst non-conference schedules in the nation, the Wildcats likely have to win the ECC or play STAC in the title game and hope for no upsets in other leagues. I don’t see a path in for Daemen unless they win Saturday. This Week: vs. New York Tech/Bridgeport, Sat. (ECC Semifinals @ UDC)
10) New York Tech (19-9): We expand the rankings to include the team formally known as NYIT. Kenny Parham’s Bears have won eight straight and have a sliver of hope for an at-large berth. The Bears would need a Molloy loss in its first-round game and then a win over Daemen in the semifinals. Perhaps then, and only then, will the regional committee offer the eight should STAC defeat New York Tech in the ECC title affair. The path would be cut off if USciences doesn’t win the CACC. Got all that?
If you’re looking for Pace, I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news. An 0-2 week has extinguished it’s at-large chances.
TMAC Deep Thoughts:
The men’s region has its second head coaching vacancy, only about 15 miles from the first. Add Chestnut Hill to the list only occupied by USciences before the weekend. Jesse Balcer has stepped aside to concentrate on his duties as the school’s Athletic Director. Being an AD is hard, but also having the responsibilities of coaching can make both jobs nearly impossible. You have to admire the successes of Tom Shirley (Jefferson) and Joe Clinton (Dominican), who not only have balanced coaching and overseeing an athletic department, but have also have had their teams relevant in the regional rankings and garnered NCAA bids over the past few seasons.
I must admit I’ve been surprised to see Marek Drabinski officiating games that involve New Haven. Drabinski’s son works in the UNH athletic department in the Compliance office. Drabinski has long been a Musings Fave but it puts him in a very difficult spot if he is officiating where his son is employed.
Congrats go out to Joey Gallo and his Merrimack Warriors. They won the Northeast Conference regular season crown. Unfortunately, they are ineligible for the NEC Tournament, the NCAA tournament and the NIT. The group has been invited to the CIT, though. Let’s hope they can keep it going in North Andover. The ladies held their own as well. At press time Monique LeBlanc’s troops had one game remaining, were 19-9, and have clinched third place in the 11-team circuit. This proves once again just how good the NE10 is.
See a mistake, disagree with an opinion or if you want to give me a thumbs up? Contact me at tpmccaffrey@gmail.com. Until next time, Happy Hooping.