Well it’s finally here!! We’ve made it to the NCAA tournament once again. This week, McCaffrey’s Musings will break down the first round games and tell you what the Selection Committees got right and wrong. We start with the men.
1) Bridgeport
2) St. Thomas Aquinas
3) Jefferson
4) St. Anselm
5) Le Moyne
6) Stonehill
7) Dominican
8) Daemen
There was only one change from last week and the committee (RAC) and I were in complete agreement. The Chargers moved up to seven from eight thanks to an inspired performance in taking home the CACC trophy for the second consecutive year. Notice there aren’t many changes. The body of work supersedes an overreaction of one or two games. Ted Hotaling, who is also the men’s coach at New Haven, could have easily been distracted after his team received a tough whistle in an NE10 tournament loss at Saint Anselm. The men’s committee once again did an excellent job and should be commended. Congrats to my colleague Chris Granozio who picked seven of the eight teams in the preseason podcast. On the other hand, I only picked five. Let’s take a look at the first round affairs and make our yearly predictions for the men’s regional which tips off Saturday.
#1 Bridgeport vs. #8 Daemen: I love UB here. The Wildcats will be without Joey Wallace, who must serve the final game of his three-game suspension for his role in an altercation in the 2016 NCAA’s while a member of Southern Connecticut. These teams will be meeting for a third time and Bridgeport swept the season series. The ‘Hub’ should be rocking as UB gets to host on campus for the first time.
#2 St. Thomas Aquinas vs. #7 Dominican: These two teams are separated by one mile and it takes about three minutes to get from one campus to the other. The ‘Kings Highway’ rivalry is one of the fiercest in the region. The Spartans and Chargers are tough and will play hard. I’ve picked the seven seed over the two seed in each of the last two years and have been right but on a neutral floor these units are even. The Chargers never get caught napping in the big spot, but neither do the Spartans. It’s a coin flip, but I like Dominican to upend a STAC group that just cut down the ECC nets. I wouldn’t call this an upset as DC handled the Spartans in the ‘Toll Booth’ early in the season.
#3 Jefferson vs. #6 Stonehill: I think this will be a great game. Jefferson plays a style that is crisp and fun to watch. When the Rams get it rolling they batter teams. The Skyhawks have played a really tough schedule, so despite receiving an at-large entry into the dance with 11 losses, I like Stonehill in a tight one. This duo hasn’t met since December, 2012, when the Skyhawks triumphed. That concluded the fifth meeting in a span of four seasons, which included a Jefferson win in the NCAA’s when the Skyhawks were the host in the 2010 regional semifinals.
#4 St. Anselm vs. #5 Le Moyne: The Dolphins enter the NCAA’s like their coach, on crutches. Nate Champion is injured and needs knee surgery and his team limped to the finish with a pair on uninspired losses. It’s impossible to get a feel as to how a team will play when they look like they have no gas in the tank but everything tells me to take the Hawks. I’ve seen this script before: St. A’s wins the NE10 only to be bounced in the first round. This year, I feel like the Keith Dickson’s contingent is playing the best basketball in the region.
One last thing before we shift to the women: I want to talk about the broadcasting situation in the region. I have no dog in this fight as I’m not available but I do know a good broadcast when I hear one and some are better than others. The fact that Chris Granozio, for the second straight year, has been told by the regional host that he’s not needed is an embarrassment to our region. We are depriving the viewership of knowledge that is unparalleled. I have turned down games in past years to include younger and greener broadcasters so they can get the experience and thrill of calling an NCAA game. I’ve been lucky enough to be a part of eight regionals and a number of championship games. I know how hard it is to call six games over two days and believe me there should be four people to call the action. If you have four people (two on each game + a sideline reporter) and one who rests for each game and, one is not Granozio, then I can’t take you seriously. Chris has dedicated countless hours to the region and will be in attendance, but not having him on the call of a big game frankly means there are big shoes to fill. As good as the men’s broadcasts were last season at St Anselm (and they were outstanding), they lacked the depth of knowledge that Chris is able to provide on all the teams. That’s a shame. I talk to several coaches who have left our region and you know what they say? We wish we had a guy like Chris to cover our team. Bridgeport had a chance to use Chris and seemingly passed.
Speaking of confusion, let’s look at the women’s rankings where the committee had darts, threw them and came up with this top eight:
1) Adelphi
2) Stonehill
3) Saint Anselm
4) Sciences
5) Molloy
6) Le Moyne
7) Daemen
8) Jefferson
Just when you thought the women’s committee had a grasp of the region, the group led by Saint Rose women’s basketball coach Karen Haag proved that notion wrong. Either the committee is telling you that they were wrong all along or they royally botched the bracket. Sources tell the Musings that inexplicably the rankings were set Sunday morning before any of the three leagues played their title tilts and NONE of those rankings included Bentley. Sciences, despite having an edge in columns over St. Anselm, moves down, which means we get a meeting of NE10 teams when it wasn’t necessary. And how exactly did Molloy jump from eighth to fifth after a 1-1 week? The women’s committee uses consistently inconsistent logic. Don’t look for rhyme or reason because there isn’t any. It’s like debating politics at Thanksgiving with someone stubborn on the other side of the spectrum!
It’s hard to render me speechless, but when info began trickling in after my CACC broadcast that the committee had Molloy at the five seed, it became apparent that these decisions may have been made days ago. What the RAC is telling us is that a Molloy win over Saint Thomas Aquinas was enough to get into the field over Le Moyne and Bentley. Also, that win over STAC, which swept the regular season series with Molloy, meant more than the entire body of work. There isn’t just one team who should be livid, you can make a case for two. Everyone knows I loved the Lions this season, but somebody is in the field that doesn’t belong based on a season’s worth of data. The columns matter except when they don’t and the data matters except when it doesn’t. Last season a former women’s committee member told me, “The bottom line is we have to get the best teams in the order with the data.” If this committee thinks Molloy is the fifth best team in this region, what can you say?
#1 Adelphi vs. #8 Jefferson: The Rams win the CACC for a Cinderella story, but the slipper may not be fitted for a deep NCAA run. The last time a three seed from the CACC South won the conference tournament it was 2015 and Holy Family garnered the eight seed when the regional was in Garden City. The Tigers clipped the Panthers in one of the biggest upsets in tourney history. I don’t think history will repeat itself, but then again nobody predicts the eight to beat the one! The Rams have won five straight in the series and have triumphed over their once NYCAC rival 31 times in 41 meetings. It’s the first time these two have faced off since January, 2010.
#2 Stonehill vs. #7 Daemen: Congrats to the Wildcats who gained the ECC automatic bid with a win over Molloy. These teams met in the opening game of the season and one will play the final game of the year against the other. In the first game the Skyhawks played without Jenny Worden and Kayla Raymond but led by double figures almost the entire way, before a late Wildcat run made the score a respectable 77-70. That was on a neutral floor and so is this one, but the result will be the same, a Skyhawk win.
#3 St. Anselm vs. #6 Le Moyne: About a month ago I said on air that it was very likely that the Hawks and Dolphins will meet on both the men’s and women’s sides as the 4 vs. 5 game. This very well could have (should have) been the 4-5 game but instead both of these teams avoid a potential second round game against Adelphi. I fully expect this to be the best game of the tournament’s first round with the Hawks gaining the W. St. A’s won the first meeting between these two this season in Syracuse.
#4 USciences vs. #5 Molloy: The Devils and Lions also meet for the second time this season. The first was a dominating Sciences victory in Rockville Centre where they held Molloy to two first quarter points while cruising to a 62-43 victory. If you give Joe Pellicane, Molloy’s great head coach, time to prepare, beware. I think the Lions will watch what Jefferson’s Tom Shirley did to the Devils and try to replicate it. Molloy is playing 10 minutes from home and Sciences played their worst basketball in a CACC semifinal loss to the Rams. I may have some recent bias here because I just witnessed Sciences play so poorly, but I’m picking Molloy, yes you heard me, to advance.
TMAC Deep Thoughts:
I can’t thank the CACC enough for allowing me the privilege of announcing the tournament this past weekend. It’s always a great few days with a wonderful staff from BTV. Due to the length of this week’s edition, I’m pushing my first annual Musies, to next week. We’ll also break down the regionals in a special Wednesday version.The Musings will be in Bridgeport for the night session on Saturday because I just can’t get enough hoops!
See a mistake, disagree with an opinion or if you want to give me a thumbs-up, contact me at tpmccaffrey@gmail.com. Until next time, Happy Hooping!