All rankings all the time in McCaffrey’s Musings this week. It has been a very unusual year. I will do my best to piece the region together and explain why teams are where they are in order to give some context as to how the data translates into seedings. We begin this week with the ladies, where to the untrained eye, it would appear NOBODY wants to host the regional!
Women’s Terrific 10
1) Bentley (10-5) ▲3
2) SNHU (15-4) ↔
3) Chestnut Hill (19-3) ▲2
4) Le Moyne (13-4) ▼3
5) Pace (17-4) ▼2
6) USciences (15-3) ↔
7) Jefferson (16-5) ↔
8) Daemen (13-3) ↔
9) Stonehill (8-6) NR
10) Franklin Pierce (9-7) ▲1
OUT: #9 Adelphi, #10 Saint Anselm
The new #1 Falcons have a lot of work to do, but they are #1 in Strength of Schedule and RPI, and fourth in the mysterious Performance Indicator (PI). The PI essentially measures wins. It’s a flawed metric, but one that matters a lot in the eyes of the committee. Despite losses at Southern New Hampshire and in Waltham to Le Moyne, C White’s group is on the top line, for now! Speaking of SNHU, the Penmen have quietly gone about their business and are poised for an NCAA bid. Believe it or not, you could make a case for Chestnut Hill to be seeded one to five, which is why I think they are slotted perfectly at three. CHC has the #1 PI, #2 RPI, is undefeated against teams in the Top 10 (2-0), and have won 13 consecutive games. The numbers show that if the Griffins win out, they likely will be the #1 seed with just a minor slip up from the squads they trail. Le Moyne and Pace are very similar. Both are undefeated at home and have struggled on the road. The Dolphins succumbed to a hungry SCSU unit that had lost seven in a row. The only reason I have the ‘Fins ahead of the Setters is because Le Moyne owns the head to head, but the two play again on the last day of the NE10 regular season. Sciences is a steady six, but Jefferson has much work to do. They are seventh in RPI and PI and are likely the biggest fans of Daemen south of the Greater Buffalo area! As for those Wildcats, their best win is at 10-8 Roberts Wesleyan. They have done what they need to do to be #8, but when you play in a weak league, you have to go out and challenge yourself in nearly every non-conference game and they have not. Stonehill is in the mix, and gaining fast on the top eight. Not only did the Skyhawks win at Bentley, but they also have road victories at Daemen and Franklin Pierce. Trisha Brown has done a world-class job this year just to have her group in the mix.
What makes this region especially hard to handicap are the polar opposite resumes some teams have. It will come down to, once again, what the regional committee deems to be more important: playing a tough schedule or accumulating wins. One thing is clear, the NE10 has a remarkable amount or parity and that isn’t good if you’re rooting for it to garner more than four bids.
Men’s 10
1) Bentley (15-3) ↔
2) Saint Anselm (13-5) ▲1
3) Adelphi (15-6) ▲1
4) Dominican (15-4) ▼2
5) Franklin Pierce 10-6 ↔
6) Jefferson (15-4) ▲1
7) Daemen (16-6) ▲1
8) SNHU (11-7) ▲2
9) Saint Thomas Aquinas (16-4) ▲2
10) Pace (14-8) NR
OUT: #6 Stonehill, #9 New Haven
Bentley is steady at one and it would be hard to fathom the Falcons dropping off that number. Saint Anselm is just barely two, but clearly should be on that line. Three, four and five get a bit more tricky. I think with the Panthers' win versus Bentley, they deserve that spot despite losing on their home floor to DC. Of the teams in my top 10, Dominican is last in SOS and RPI. Franklin Pierce is no lower than the five-seed in any metric and has a very good chance to end up in the #2 position when all is said and done. Jefferson is on an island at six. Hard to move them up with home losses to Adelphi, St. A's and Pierce, but also very tough to move them down as the Rams’ four losses have come to #2, #3, #5 above and a highly motivated Chestnut Hill team which sports an over .500 record. I have Daemen much closer to six than eight. If the Wildcats hold serve at home against STAC in 11 days they will be able to breath a little easier. I have Southern New Hampshire at eight and this is for good reason. Despite being 2-4 versus the field, that betters the Spartans, which sport an 0-3 mark against the ranked teams. You have to show you can beat teams in the field. SNHU bests the Spartans in RPI and SOS. STAC is clinging to nine thanks to a win at 12-6 Findlay (OH). Findlay is not projected to be in the field of 64 at this time. You can make a very good case to have Pace #9, but I settled on the Setters one notch lower.
If you’re wondering, I have Saint Rose, New Haven, and Post as the next three out, but unless each wins every contest to the conference tourney finals none have a realistic shot at an at-large without several teams in front of the line imploding.
NEXT WEEK
The Rankings drop to nine. Until next time, always do what’s right, Not what’s easy!
McCaffrey’s Musings is authored by Tim McCaffrey who has covered D2 basketball since 2003. While not broadcasting or writing this column, he umpires baseball and lots of it. His website, closecallsports.com is all about umpiring baseball properly! He responds to all e-mails so if you have a question or just want to chat or share your opinion feel free to reach out at: tpmccaffrey@gmail.com