McCaffrey's Musings - Regional update
By Tim McCaffrey
Time for a rare McCaffrey’s Musings, late in the week edition!
This is where I have teams at the minute on Friday:
TMAC’S Women’s Seeds
1) Southern New Hampshire (21-6) LOCK: Committee could move Penmen down should CHC win CACC title.
2) Chestnut Hill (23-5) LOCK: Could still host regional with wins over Jefferson and USciences in CACC's. All losses are to teams over .500, and a 6-2 record versus regionally-ranked teams.
3) USciences (21-6) LOCK: If this is where the committee inexplicably had them last week, then there should be ZERO chance they fall off this line with a win in the CACC semifinals vs. Post. A loss to the Eagles should slide the Devils a spot or two. I love USP (old school), but they just haven’t beaten anyone. Saint Anselm (15-13) is the school’s second best win. Le Moyne beat the Hawks twice. They have collected wins against the RPI 151+ and granted they have zero missteps (every loss is vs. a regionally-ranked opponent), but it’s a lot harder to stub a toe in cupcakes than cement!!
4) Le Moyne: (17-7) LOCK: At the moment they clip Pace in the criteria, but 4-7 has become a cluster.
5) Pace (21-7): LOCK: The Setters should be dancing, but sometimes the WBB RAC is reactionary. Possible that the NE-10 Tourney champ bumps the #5 down a line.
6) Jefferson (21-7): Jefferson is clinging to a couple early-season wins over Lincoln and Bloomsburg, though the latter should be out of the Top 10 currently. That makes a difference and in a situation where every detail matters it could be enough to knock Jefferson from the field if they lose to CHC in the CACC semis and Stonehill wins the NE10 crown. In that situation it would be a Bentley vs Jefferson for the last slot and I think the edge should be Jefferson. Of course, a win over CHC and that should wrap up a bid!
7) Bentley (16-8): With a win over Le Moyne to avenge a home loss they are super close to the three teams above and the first team out at the moment, Stonehill.
8) Daemen (18-4)/ECC TOURNAMENT WINNER: For simplicity's sake, since we’re trying to tell you at this point what the bracket will look like, the ECC champion will, barring upsets in other leagues, hold the final spot. The conference will be a one-bid league.
The Others Contenders:
Stonehill (16-8): Never count the Skyhawks out with Tricia Brown on the sidelines. A win in the NE 10 title affair and they dance, but I have them being the last team out with a loss. What shall the committee say?
Post (19-7): The CACC North champs need to first beat Sciences and then dispatch of the Jefferson/CHC winner to get in. That’s a gauntlet!
St. Thomas Aquinas (14-14) vs Molloy (16-9): If the third contest is as good as the first two, then we are all in store for a treat. The Lions swept the season series by five points and one game needed OT! Both teams need to win the ECC to get the AQ
Roberts Wesleyan (14-11): Need to win ECCs and the defense of that crown starts at Daemen.
Men’s Top Eight
1) Bentley (21-4) LOCK: Even with a loss to FPU in the NE10 finals, the Falcons will be hosting the 2022 East Regional.
2) Franklin Pierce (19-9) LOCK: The Falcons could sweep the #1 seed, but the overall resume should land them at #2 with a win or a loss on Sunday.
3) Saint Anselm (17-10) LOCK: Should be nearly locked into three with one caveat - see #4.
4) Dominican (20-6): LOCK: With a CACC title there could be an argument for the #3 seed, but I think the team from Rockland County settles here win or lose.
5) Pace (19-9): LOCK: We’ve moved the Setter to Lock status. There’s also probably close to cemented in the 4/5 matchup!
6) New Haven (17-8) LOCK: Two sets of Chargers will be NCAA-bound! UNH could drop to #7 depending on ECC results, if Dominican wins the CACC. If any other teams cuts down the CACC nets, and Daemen wins, they will likely be at #6. If STAC wins they could bump UNH down a line!
7) St. Thomas Aquinas (24-4): An ECC tournament title run which includes Daemen could elevate the Spartans a notch. A loss in the semis or the title tilt should only move them down to #8. That would mean the squad would have to root for…. Dominican to not allow a bid to be stolen by an AQ not already in the field.
8) Daemen (19-8): Here’s where things get very complicated. If Daemen loses in the semifinals to Molloy, the Wildcat season could be over. A semifinal win and a championship game loss to STAC and they should be #8, but I can see the committee taking a long look at another team way off the radar. More on that in a second. Just win, baby, and they remove all doubt. Also, super-fans for Dominican!
The Other Contenders
Southern New Hampshire: (13-11) When you do a deep dive, SNHU's schedule is so strong they may actually still be in at-large consideration. If Daemen were to lose to Molloy, STAC win the ECC, and Dominican triumph in the CACC, then SNHU could slide into the #8. It’s a long shot, but it may be possible!
Molloy (12-16): Must cin ECC championship.
Roberts Wesleyan (12-12): See Molloy.
Post (20-8): The Eagles need the AQ to get into the dance but with a win at Saint Anselm and a one-point OT loss to Bentley, this group can play with anyone.
Felician (17-9): The Golden Falcons trajectory changed after a devastating loss in Waterbury to Post, but they need to win the CACC tourney to get in!
Jefferson: (21-5): Despite the wonderful record, the Rams need two more wins to dance! Next game up is against #4 Dominican in CACC semisinals.
Final Thoughts
I hope this helps put everything in perspective. This is by no means official, but hopefully gives a general idea where the committees should be. There is always a chance they are not, which would give us something to talk about on Monday!
McCaffrey’s Musings is authored by Tim McCaffrey who has covered D2 Hoops since 2003. If you would like to reach out he responds to all e-mails tpmccaffrey@gmail.com