The Chronicles check out the East Region at the holiday hiatus

2022-’23 – D2 East Women’s Basketball – Info at break

By Stephen Zerdelian

Every season (except for the COVID season, 2020-’21), I try to check out the teams who are doing well at this point in the schedule (.667 or better overall), the holiday break, and see how they got there. This is the fifth seasonal edition of this column and there have never been fewer teams that have qualified for inclusion (between 9-12 teams in previous campaigns). Does this mean more balance? Maybe. Keep in mind that two teams which are no longer part of the region, Stonehill and the University of the Sciences, were habitually in it (Sciences all four times, Stonehill twice), so there is a vacuum to fill. But it could also mean fewer strong teams. It will take until March to find out for sure but for now, let’s check out the raw numbers…

Information thru December 27, 2022 – teams in region with .667 winning percentages or better:

To be honest, it’s not a stellar group we are looking at this season in terms of percentages of opponents but that might be due to the relative parity in the region. Only two of the eight teams have played a schedule that boasts +.500 combined records and none have a winning record against teams that they’ve beaten. Looking at it team-by-team…

Assumption is undefeated, which counts for a lot. The Greyhounds do have wins over four over-.500 tams (AIC, Dominican, Le Moyne and New Haven), which helps. Upon returning to action they will face Southern New Hampshire, Bentley and Southern Connecticut in their next four games (the first two away), so if they can negotiate that span, Assumption will be in the regional drivers seat… Jefferson also has four wins over +.500 foes (Shippensburg, East Stroudsburg, Lincoln and Southern Connecticut), placing them in a strong spot. The Rams will have another quality opponent when they resume play (St. Thomas Aquinas) but then the CACC slate will drag them down a bit. Their only loss was to a 5-5 West Chester outfit but banking good wins now is a huge help for Jefferson… St. Thomas Aquinas is another team with four wins over +.500 teams (AIC, Dominican, Post, Daemen) and they will have two massive chances to boost their resume when they return to play against Southern New Hampshire and Jefferson. The win over Daemen was a nice ECC victory and they will have one more game against the Wildcats down the line… Daemen has one win over a +.500 team (Le Moyne) and will have no chances to really bolster their resume after play restarts, as only the STAC game might be a big scalp. The Wildcats can rely upon a glossy record to get them only so far, which means their margin for error is lower than usual… Southern New Hampshire has wins over four +.500 teams (Southern Connecticut, Adelphi, Saint Rose and Post) but also lost to two winning teams (Dominican, Bentley). The Penmen get three big tests right out of the break (at STAC, home against Assumption and at AIC), which will clarify their position regionally a little… Le Moyne has three wins over +500 teams (Lake Erie, Post and Saint Rose) but their losses have all come to +.500 teams, so its six-of-one, half-dozen of the other. They resume with a trip to New Haven and will have plenty of chances for decent wins in NE10 play… New Haven’s record is thin when you consider they only have one win against a +.500 team (Adelphi) and all three defeats are to +.500 teams (Saint Rose, AIC and Assumption). The Chargers can gain ground with some good NE10 wins, and they have a chance to start with a non-league victory over Dominican when they return to action… Southern Connecticut has a pair of wins over +.500 teams (Dominican and Adelphi) but all three losses are to teams of the same nature, so they could also do with some good wins. Road trips to Assumption, New Haven and SNHU, along with home games against Le Moyne and Bentley (all five in January) will give them a shot to shine their record soon.

No regional teams are within a game of being on the list and only Adelphi and Bentley (both 6-4) are within two games of it, which leads to a lot of parity/mediocrity. Odds are that somebody will emerge to make a late NCAA run, or that there could be a surprise league tournament champion (to grab an automatic qualifier bid) but it remains to be seen who that could be.

How predictive is this mid-season list? Here is how it broke down over the first four seasons of data collection:

2021-’22 – 9 on the list, 6 made NCAA’s (three teams were one game shy of the list and two made it to the NCAA field)

2019-‘20 – 11 on list, 5 made NCAA’s (three teams were one game shy of the list, one of which made the NCAA’s).

2018-‘19 – 12 on list, 8 made NCAA’s.

2017-‘18 – 10 on list, 7 made NCAA’s (the other NCAA team was 7-5 at the break).

Is it a perfect predictor? Certainly not, particularly this season with so many vagaries and roadblocks. How many of these nine combines will make what we presume is the normal eight-team regional field? Who knows for sure, but I’ve found it instructive to check back at the end of the season each time before and see just how predictive it may be. Once we get to March, I’ll revisit and see how it turned out.

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That’s it for now - until next time, happy holidays!