Re-Imagining the East Region

Re-Imagining the East Region   

My brain works in funny ways. With all the movement in the region over the last few seasons (teams entering and leaving for various reasons), I wondered how to revamp the region in different ways. Like chess pieces, I thought about how to move them around to create more interest or fun. How else to spend my time?

The way our three conferences have come into being makes for good reading. The NE10 began as the NE7 (and then the NE8) and added teams from the old NECC, which split up in the late 1990’s. The ECC used to be the NYCAC and has had plenty of movement since joining the region in the mid 90’s. As for the CACC, they moved into the region in the early 2000’s and have mainly stayed the same the last decade-plus. If you really want their full histories, check out their respective conference websites for more detail.

So, as I started to think about how to shuffle the teams, the first (and most obvious) route was geography. With 38 teams in the East Region, this is where they are located, generally…

New York (upstate) (5) – Daemen, D’Youville, Le Moyne, Roberts Wesleyan, Saint Rose.

New York (City, Long Island and environs) (10) – Adelphi, Concordia, Dominican, Mercy, Molloy, Nyack, Pace, Queens, St. Thomas Aquinas, Staten Island.

New Jersey (4) – Bloomfield, Caldwell, Felician, Georgian Court.         

Northern New England (4) – Franklin Pierce, St. Anselm, St. Michael’s, Southern New Hampshire.

Massachusetts (4) – AIC, Assumption, Bentley, Stonehill.

Connecticut (4) – Bridgeport, New Haven, Post, Southern Connecticut.

Philadelphia (4) – Chestnut Hill, Holy Family, Jefferson, Sciences.

Deep South (3) – District of Columbia, Goldey-Beacom, Wilmington.   

You can twist and turn them in any direction and create your own leagues, of varying sizes and shapes. Fun but ultimately bland - and the results will likely be much as they are now.

For European soccer followers, one feature of their sport unlike anything in America is the concept of promotion and relegation. In other words, teams are segmented into various levels and (generalizing here but bear with me) the best teams in one division are promoted to the level up for the following season (same for the worst teams, they are sent down to the next level). Not practical for American college sports but… what if it was?

That leads me to completely re-imagining the region based on actual performance only. The teams would be split into three levels of play for the coming season using purely mathematical formulas to rate their recent success or lack thereof. Theoretically, that would engender competitive play at each level with the added incentive of the top team(s) moving up a level for the following season. Leaving the newcomers, Staten Island and D’Youville, out of the mix (there is no data for them yet in D2), I went with three levels of a dozen teams each. Suspend reality here, folks – what would it look like?

Let’s start with the parameters. I decided to use the last seven seasons to build a base of data. Why seven years? Well, the last team (aside of Staten Island and D’Youville) to commit to playing a full league schedule in the region was Daemen for the 2013-’14 campaign. That is as good a place to start as any, combining recent success with the usual ups and towns programs will endure. Then I needed a reasonable formula.

The goal here was to try to represent the region as a whole and not to arbitrarily pick the ‘best’ teams. Data rules! How a team has fared within their league and overall, and how consistent they have been matters. Extra points for post-season play and 20-win seasons were added to reflect status as being among the better teams in the region during a given season. After a while of trying to craft a sensible formula, I settled on this:

Overall and conference win percentage:         Other categories (5):

(2 categories)

.700 or better -     7 points                                  20+-win seasons -                                       2 points each

.600-.699 -             6 points

.550-.559 -             5 points                                Conference tournament championships -       3 points each

.500-.549 -             4 points                                Conference tournament finals -                     2 points each

.450-.499 -             3 points                                Conference tournament semifinals -              1 point each

.400-.449 -             2 points

Less than .400 -    1 point                                   NCAA tournament appearances -                    3 points each

The maximum number of points a team could achieve is 70, if they have .700 overall and league-winning percentages, win 20 games and win their league tournament every year while also garnering seven NCAA bids. All of that is virtually impossible but were some impressive performances.

You may not agree with the formula or want to tweak the numbers a bit; feel free to do so. The background research is available if you want to see it (see the link at the end of this column) but I will do my best to summarize here. What it shows is that each of the three levels (Tiers A, B and C) and the overall seven-season point total for every team. Now time to interpret…

Tier A

Most long-term, astute followers of the region can probably guess the bulk of the top dozen teams but how do they stack up with the formula applied? Well, it shows that five teams stand above the pack, separated by twelve points. The next clutch of teams (#6-#12) start a hefty nine points adrift of 5^th place but with just ten points separating them.

At the top of the tree is Jefferson with 55 points. The Rams maxed out with .700 or better win percentages in league play and overall each year bar one and posted six 20-win seasons (missing in ’16-’17, going 14-15). They were the best in the region in conference tourney play (14 points, with three CACC crowns) and tossed in five NCAA trips. Success and consistency highlights Tom Shirley’s program and the numbers bear that out.

Bentley is a close #2, clocking in with 52 points. The Falcons also maxed out with .700 or better play every year bar one in the league and overall while winning 20-plus games five times. 13 points from conference tourney play and five NCAA bids (15) add to the total. Maybe Barbara Stevens’ team should get more credit for going 35-0 and winning the NCAA title in 2014 but not by these guidelines. Bentley’s only losing season (11-16 in ’15) dents the ledger but not by much. Elite recognizes elite; the Falcons have the most wins (176), and best winning percentages (.796 and .793) in the region.

Next on the list is another CACC team, the University of the Sciences, with 46 points. The Devils boast the best overall (.757) and league (.812) winning percentages in the conference, posted five twenty-win campaigns and reached the NCAA stage four times. They are a step behind Jefferson in CACC playoff totals (10 points; two titles, one finalist appearance and two semifinal spots) but otherwise hold their own. Aside of Bentley, the Devils are the only team to win 30 games in a season and they did it twice.

Adelphi and Stonehill round out the upper echelon with 43 points apiece. The teams mirror each other in win percentages (both over .700 overall and in the NE10) and both notched four 20-plus win seasons. The differences are in NCAA trips (Stonehill with a 5-4 edge) and NE10 playoff totals (Adelphi is up, 15-12 in points). Both sustained just one sub-.500 season and have nearly identical overall records in this span (AU 152-61; Stonehill 152-62).

Queens pulls in at #6 with 34 points and a heavy emphasis on the first four years in the stretch under the microscope. From 2013-’14 to 2016-’17, the Knights won 20 games and made the NCAA tournament every season, accounting for the bulk of their points. The last three years QC has been under .500 each time (just 26 total wins) and haven’t even reached the ECC semifinals.

Up next at #7 is CACC North Division outfit Caldwell with 32 points. The Cougars also enjoyed the majority of their success earlier rather than later, as they have posted sub-.500 seasons the last two years. But in the middle, Caldwell had three 20-win seasons, profited in the CACC tourney (two finals and three semifinals) and made their only two NCAA visits ever.

Back to the ECC for #8, St. Thomas Aquinas, with 31 points. Things have gotten better and better for the Spartans over the last few years, as they had good but not outstanding seasons in the first four years. Since then, STAC has won 20+ games three straight years and reached the NCAA’s twice. Their only ECC title was in this window and they have made four ECC semifinal trips, as well, to bolster the total.

Bloomfield in ninth with 30 points. The last two years have been forgettable for the Bears (6-22 each time) but before that, they collected a trio of 20-plus win seasons and made their only two NCAA appearances. Add in success in the CACC tournament (one title, a final appearance and two other semifinal trips) and you have a healthy overall total.

2019 regional champion St. Anselm checks in with 28 points, good for #10. The Hawks have enjoyed their two best seasons in this seven-year window the last two years, posting 20+ wins and making NCAA showings each time. They also added NE10 final and semifinal appearances to the total. Before that, St. Anselm was solid (four years on win totals between 15-18 victories) but had only boasted one NCAA trip and one NE10 semifinal visit.

Holy Family is #11 with 27 points despite an up-and-down chart. The Tigers have had three losing seasons in this run but also two 20-win years. The latter seasons (’15 and ’16) produced NCAA showings and solid work in the CACC tournament (one title and one semifinal trip), underpinning their success. Last years’ bounce-back season (18-11 and a CACC finalist) bodes well for the future.

Wrapping up Tier A is Le Moyne with 24 points. Other than the ’19 season (26-6), the Dolphins have notched between 13-19 wins each time out, great consistency but just shy of true success. They also put together four consecutive years of .500 play in the NE10 (10-10) at one point but the last four seasons have yielded a conference crown and three semifinal appearances. LC has also been an NCAA team the last two years to help them nudge into the top level.

Now, what should be noted is that two teams no longer in the region, New York Tech and LIU Post, made some serious noise before bowing out. 

NYIT, in fact, racked up 41 points over seven years and would have been #6 on the list. The Bears posted four twenty-win seasons, were never below .500 and were excellent in ECC tourney play (one title, four finals trips and one semifinal), so their success was across the board. They put together strong overall (.656) and league (.686) winning percentages in this span and made a trio of NCAA tourney appearances, so they deserve to be mentioned in the upper cut of the region in this stretch. 

LIU Post was out of the mix last season (they no longer field a program, having been absorbed into the LIU system) but collected 26 points in their six previous seasons, enough to threaten entry to Tier A. The Pioneers had a pair of losing seasons in the six-year span but also posted a pair of 20-win seasons. They tossed in two ECC title game trips and a pair of NCAA visits to the resume.

Tier B

Tier B has a rather wide gap from top-to-bottom, with the points ranging from 23 down to six. A number of the teams here have enjoyed fleeting or intermittent success and can boast one regional title among them. Let’s begin with a tie for the top spot in the tier, with two ECC teams falling a snip short of Tier A.

Only one point from a spot in Tier A was the University of the District of Columbia (23). Their best years were at the start of the window, as the Firebirds put up three 20-win seasons, two NCAA trips and good work in the ECC tournament (a title and two semifinal spots). Since then it has been pretty dreary, with just 25 wins over the last four years and no ECC or NCAA points to crow about.

Roberts Wesleyan also collected 23 points, benefitting from extra games in NCCAA tournament play. The Redhawks submitted four 20+-win seasons and fine work overall (.639) and in the league (.623) to build their resume. They lack NCAA (no trips) or ECC (one finalist and one semifinal showing) success, however, which ultimately dented their case for Tier A placement.

The other team close to Tier A is Molloy, with a total of 22 points. A somewhat erratic chart is their fate over the timespan, with two 20-win seasons and two NCAA trips sandwiched around four losing campaigns. The Lions are dead-even .500 overall (102-102) but take out the strong winters (’19-’20 and ’16-’17) and they trudge in at 56-84.

New Haven (19 points) is next in line, posting solid overall (.579) and conference (.525) records. Two NE10 semifinal visits and a pair of NCAA trips (in the first two years of the window, including a regional crown) dress up the Chargers totals. UNH only sustained two losing seasons among the seven in question, which keeps them in the conversation, but a lack of sustained post-season success holds them back.

Ironically, right behind New Haven is their local rival, Southern Connecticut, with 18 points. A pair of winning seasons (one 20-win year) and two NCAA appearances help the Owls resume, as do trips to the NE10 final and semifinals. SCSU is a single game over .500 (102-101) overall but thirteen games under the break-even mark in the league (63-76), denting their hopes of moving up. 

Completing a hat trick of NE10 teams in this vicinity is AIC, which recorded 16 points. The Yellow Jackets boast five winning seasons (one 20-win year) and a .560 overall win percentage but their lack of meaningful playoff accolades weighs them down. AIC has one NE10 title game visit and one NCAA trip (both in 2016) on their books, so they lost a chance to gain ground there. 

Daemen (16 points) is level with AIC, and the newest kids on the block have shown solid improvement during the last few years. Last season’s 23-5 mark (13-3 in the ECC), league crown and NCAA berth (their first of each) marks the end of a five-year run with increased win totals each time (9, 11, 12, 18, 23). The Wildcats are 65-65 in the ECC but their last two campaigns saw them run p a 28-6 mark, so the trend is up.

Assumption’s 14 points put them next on the chart. Remarkable consistency (between 10 and 19 wins each year) helped the Greyhounds rack up a 105-89 overall mark but they were just under .500 in NE10 play (71-74). Minimal league (one NE10 semifinal showing) and NCAA (two trips) honors means AC is stuck in the middle of the pack, however.

Four CACC teams wrap up Tier B, with Dominican (10 points) the first one. The Chargers have collected double digit wins and losses every year in the window (their 16-13 mark in ‘2018-’19 the pick of the lot) but have done far better in the league (81-52) than overall (95-108). A sole CACC semifinal spot (’17) is the only sign of post-season success.

Goldey-Beacom (7 points) has a similar post-season resume to Dominican (one CACC semifinal showing, ’19), and generally their overall record (86-116) is close to DC’s. The difference is that GBC’s CACC ledger is not as good (69-64, .519), although quite respectable in a more competitive division. But unless that becomes a criteria, the Lightning will lag behind the Chargers in point totals.

The last two seasons allowed Post (6 points) to climb into Tier B. A 14-14 record in ’18-’19 was followed by a 22-6 mark last season, including a visit to the CACC semifinals. Take those (and a combined 26-12 CACC record) out of the tabulation and the Eagles are floundering but their recent upswing does enough to propel them in this category. 

Rounding out Tier B is Chestnut Hill, also with 6 points. A pair of winning seasons (’17 and ’18) helped the Griffins to a 67-66 CACC record and an extra point. Their post-season is empty, though (no NCAA’s or CACC final fours), leaving them grasping to stay in this bracket.  

Before we move on to Tier C, a word about Merrimack. Although the Warriors played just six years in this timespan they still picked up nine points, which would have tucked them into Tier B. Merrimack’s final D2 season yielded 20 wins but before that they were remarkably tepid (no more or less than 12-15 wins or losses) and never gained a single NE10 tournament or NCAA point. Yet, as a D1 team last year, they went 20-9 and finished in third place in the NEC. What does that say for the D2 region they left?

Tier C

The final category is Tier C…

One NCAA trip in 2015 was enough to put Franklin Pierce at the top of Tier C with five points. Otherwise, the Ravens would have had the minimum of two points, given sub .400 overall and NE10 records. Last season FPU did show nice signs of a recovery, winning 11 games, more than the previous three campaigns combined (10).

Southern New Hampshire’s major success in gathering four points was their non-league form. The Penmen posted a 55-90 record in the NE10 but went 37-13 outside of the conference, enough to vault them to a .472 overall winning percentage. Give them credit for raising their bar, as SNHU has posted three straight winning seasons, banking 16 or 17 wins each time out.

Three teams have three points, Georgian Court, Pace and the College of Saint Rose. GCU is the only one with a league (CACC) tournament semifinal appearance (’19) but their overall (.241) and league (.263) percentages are poor. On the bright side, the Lions have posted double-digit wins the last two seasons (13 and 10), so there has been improvement. NE10 outfits Pace and Saint Rose have seen some great days but not much in the last seven years. Both are over .400 overall (Pace .439 and Saint Rose .411), earning them an extra point but both fall short of that level in league action (Pace just missed at .396 but Saint Rose is just .302). The Setters have two seasons above .500 overall (19-10 last year and 15-14 in ’17-’18) while the Golden Knights have only one (14-13 in ’15-’16) in this window.

Seven teams have the minimum of one point each, so separating them in a difficult exercise. Probably the best of the lot is Bridgeport, with winning percentages of .335 and .346. The Purple Knights have the only winning season within this group, going 15-14 in 2016-’17, one of three double-figure win campaigns…Wilmington claimed percentages of .313 and .331 while posting a 14-14 overall mark in 2015-’16… St. Michael’s hit the double-digit level twice (12 and 11 wins) with .354 and .269 percentages… Felician also enjoyed two 10+ win seasons (12 and 10) and posted a 10-9 CACC ledger in 2013-’14. The Golden Falcons were better in the CACC play (.316) than overall (.290)… Mercy, Concordia and Nyack bring up the rear, as none has enjoyed a double-digit win winter in this span. Mercy has the best overall percentage (.215) but the worst league percentage (.108; 14-116). Concordia and Nyack each have .211 CACC percentages but the Warriors (.198) are slightly better than the Clippers (.174) overall.

What does it all mean? Not much, honestly. I just like numbers. You can draw your own conclusions, of course, but what if the next full season actually played out like this? Yup, just me day-dreaming again. Sorry. As always, questions, comments, ideas and/or rants are always welcome. Glad to hear them. Email me at Anfield13@aol.com. 

Click here to download the source spreadsheet that was used to craft this column:

Download Region Re-imagining Spreadsheet