Women’s Notebook – NCAA tournament prospects
By Stephen Zerdelian
It’s about this time of year when I start to think more critically about the NCAA East regional tournament. Despite the fractured schedule, there is a little bit of clarity starting to emerge from the season and I like to try and look ahead a month or six weeks to what teams might be standing tall at that point.
My colleague, Tim McCaffrey, takes a weekly check on status of the region and it’s always a great read. (https://www.d2easthoops.org/women/features/McCaffrey-s_Musings/McCaffrey-s_Musings_20220124). His column is a macro look at the region, but I have the advantage of a more micro look. In other words, which clubs do I think have what it takes to get into the regional eight – and who has the tools to win it once there?
There has been some reasonable gradation thus far. Let’s begin with the teams I expect to see in the regional tournament.
Southern New Hampshire hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament since they were known as New Hampshire College, but this Karen Pinkos edition possesses the tools to not only get there but to win it. The Penmen have long had scorers and wing players, but the missing piece has proven to be Meg Knollmeyer. The graduate student is the best rebounder in the NE10 (and among the best in the nation), shoots over 50%, runs the floor well and blocks shots. She’s my pick for NE10 Defensive Player of the Year, yet maybe the most important thing she brings is NCAA experience from her days at now-closed New York Institute of Technology. That sort of mentality permeates and helps the whole team.
Knollmeyer isn’t the only quality player on the roster, far from it. Scorers Ariana Timberlake and Gyanna Russell can take over spells in a game while guards Karlee Ziliak and Jenna Roche lend size, scoring chops and defense. There is depth, too. Pinkos’ unit has dropped only one in-region game until this week – a hard-fought 56-54 overtime loss to red-hot Adelphi - and has a handful of key road games ahead (Pace, Le Moyne and Bentley), giving them a chance to nail down the top seed and possibly hosting duties. They pass the eye test – they look to me like an NCAA tourney team and maybe, just maybe, a regional champion.
In the same category is Le Moyne. Mary Grimes has done a remarkable job in her first year at the helm and despite a slight lack of depth, her Dolphins are hard to handle. LC defends very well, and their zone is a bear to decipher. Most teams don’t play zone, but this team does, and they play it with some unusual parts that cannot be replicated in a practice setting. Jenna Zimmerman (often at the top or the wing) is as long as long gets, and interior factors Emma Brinker and Hayden Roberts take up space really well. The active Lytoya Baker and sturdy Erin Fouracre add intelligence and quick hands on the perimeter, making the LC zone a serious weapon.
The one thing holding me back from thinking the Dolphins are fast-tracked to the Elite Eight is a lack of scoring. They struggle to ring it up at times and their only consistent three-point threat, Saeeda Abdul-Aziz, can go cold occasionally. A good example was this week’s defeat at Franklin Pierce, where LC shot 4-31 from the floor in the second half, scoring only 12 points in a 68-47 loss. Generating offense from defense and using transition wisely has helped LC overcome their flaws and should be enough to make them a viable NCAA tournament entry. Hosting or winning the regional may require something out of the ordinary, but Le Moyne, like SNHU, isn’t far from being good enough to host and/or claim their first regional crown.
My next choice in this bracket is Daemen. Yes, the Wildcats are in the least imposing league in the region and should be able to navigate it with few (if any) losses and earn the ECC’s automatic bid to the dance. That’s a path they’ve traversed before (winning the ECC in ’20 and advancing to the Elite Eight in ’21), so with such experience comes expectations. And confidence. Jenepher Banker’s squad has won eight in a row after dropping Mercy in a key game over the weekend and won’t be challenged until an early February visit to Roberts Wesleyan. Their strength of schedule precludes a chance to host the regional, but they are more than capable of properly defending their crown.
Katie Titus, for those that may have missed it, is enjoying another excellent season for Daemen, and functions as the fulcrum of the team. She’s the best the ECC has to offer and among the region’s top players, so that’s a great place to start when discussing the Wildcats. The pieces around her such as Mickayla Ivy and Tiara Filbert have flourished as second bananas, thus this is a team with a clear identity. But they have yet to win a fully-fledged regional and must thirst to prove themselves under those conditions. My gut tells me they will have that chance.
OK, so that’s three teams I expect to be there, and would be fairly stunned if any of them were not. Just underneath is a phalanx of squads that have every right to think they might/can/will get a bid. Some of them will but there is no guarantee just yet.
Bentley has seen multiple season-shaping games cancelled (Sciences and Daemen among them) but still sits in a reasonable position to challenge the teams above them in the NE10 as well as regionally. Their four setbacks have come against teams with a combined 48-8 record (not counting the two ‘losses’ Eckerd has thanks to pandemic policies in the Sunshine State Conference), so they have no bad losses. C White’s Falcons could do with a few more nice wins but in the end, they should be in the eight-team field. This week’s dominant victory over Pace goes a long way to fulfill that need, and they will have more chances to add to their resume. An active and improving roster bodes well, and assuming Bentley can avoid the scoring brownouts that have cost them games (51 points per game in their defeats), their body of work impresses.
Pace is among the regional elite and with Carrie Seymour now among the select band of active regional coaches to (a) have 500 wins and (b) have won a regional title, the Setters are in a good place. NE10 Player of the Year favorite Lauren Schetter has been sensational, and they defend well and do a lot of things with quiet efficiency as a unit. Although the Setters had a forgettable week (losses at Franklin Pierce and Bentley), they have been picking up wins regularly and setting the foundation for a successful season.
The negatives with Pace are two-fold. Number one, their strength of schedule is not very good, and this will hurt come seeding time. It could be a more ominous factor if their form fades but for the time being it shouldn’t cost them a spot in the field. The other issue is their depth below Schetter. Point guard Lauren Hackett is the next leading scorer, but she tallies more than a dozen points less than Schetter on average, so if Schetter has a bad night, can Pace overcome it? Naya Rivera has picked up the scoring mantle a few times, though, which is a great sign. The bottom line is that I cannot see the Setters falling apart over the next six weeks, and even though they have work to do to, their chances to reach the regional are solid.
Next in line here is a new face, Chestnut Hill. In the midst of a program-best ten-game win streak, the Griffins recently ran the CACC gamut of Sciences, Jefferson, Post and Holy Family unblemished, which translates to CACC supremacy and a real chance to make their NCAA tourney debut, either as an automatic qualifier or as an at-large participant. Jim Connolly’s team has veterans like Cassie Sebold, Bri Hewlett, Lauren Crim and Abbey Spratt doing work while freshman Emily Chmiel anchors the middle. I don’t expect CHC to go unscathed that much longer, but they have put themselves in a good spot to be in the at-large discussion, at bare minimum.
Jackie Hartzell is doing yet another amazing job at the wheel for the University of the Sciences. As most know by now, the program/school will cease to exist after this season, being absorbed by St. Joe’s in Philadelphia. Still, the Devils find way to win. They rarely lose games they shouldn’t and in the CACC, that means good things. Sciences continues to thrive from three-point land, defends well and has enough pop (Jess Huber, Anna McTamney, Taylor Hamm and Kendall Keyes) to knit it all together. The Devils can certainly win the CACC automatic bid and should be able to pick up enough wins to be right in the at-large discussions if they don’t.
In the same category is Jefferson. Tom Shirley’s Rams have had a mediocre January (4-3) and have a narrow path to at-large status as long as they stay in third place in the CACC South. Haley Meinel, Cassie Murphy and Morgan Robinson are all assets for the Rams and it’s not a stretch to think they can gather themselves and make a real run at the league crown. They have a handful of ‘get-right’ games in the upcoming weeks, and they’d best not let any of those games get away if they want to stay rooted in the NCAA picture.
That’s eight teams I’ve mentioned but I’d bet dollars to doughnuts that somebody will crash the party from outside this group. Who are the leading contenders?
Saint Anselm, with Peyton Steinman and Gabby Turco at the helm, is a dangerous outsider. The Hawks might have to claim the NE10 title to get a bid but other than the four NE10 teams I’ve already noted, they might be the one with the best chance to pull it off… Roberts Wesleyan won the ECC last year and could end up as the major roadblock for Daemen in the league again. Dimitra Gkizani is playing her best basketball lately, which gives the Redhawks a chance to make a run… Mercy has had a terrific season but back-to-back setbacks to Daemen and Roberts Wesleyan has dented their chances. Like the Redhawks, Mercy will have to win the ECC to reach the NCAA field, since an at-large bid seems out of reach… There are four CACC North teams that stand a fighting chance in every game but there is no separation there, and none will likely pile up enough wins for an at-large berth. Post and Caldwell might be the pick of the litter, but nothing says Felician, Nyack or even Dominican couldn’t pull a CACC tourney upset. But can any pull off more than one shocker? They will have to in order to sniff an NCAA bid… Others that have some modicum of hope to get hot at the right time include Adelphi (on a six-game winning streak at the moment), Holy Family (Moe Moore and Lindsay Tretter have been playing well), Franklin Pierce (impressive winners over Pace and Le Moyne this week) and Stonehill (never discount a Kayla Raymond-led outfit) but they, like the others in this paragraph, have ground to recover to really be in the at-large conversation.
News ‘N Notes
Congrats to Assumption head coach Kerry Phayre for picking her 400th win recently, joining fellow NE10 mentor Carrie Seymour in reaching a coaching milestone. The Greyhounds beat New Haven, 58-48, in the contest with Marina Callahan scoring 17 points and securing 11 rebounds…
Individual games of note… Dimitra Gkizani netted a career-high 25 points (and added 17 boards) in Roberts Wesleyan’s win at Queens… Amanda Kabantu (22 points) had a personal-best in Bentley’s 91-43 rout of AIC, a game in which the Falcons won the glass, 46-18, and shot almost 60% overall… Lauren Schetter’s 31 points (11-22 FG, 9-10 FT) set a career-high as Pace slipped past St. Michael’s, 69-65. She had eight points in a game-deciding 12-0 run late in the game for the Setters… Meg Knollmeyer reached the 1,000-rebound plateau is SNHU’s win against Saint Rose, part of a game in which the Golden Knights didn’t make a field goal until six seconds into the second quarter… Emma Carter’s 28 points helped Franklin Pierce push Adelphi but the Panthers, who only trailed three times for a combined 2:11, ended up a 68-67 winner thanks to Ty Hawkins’ basket with 1:23 left… Emily Chmiel (23 points, 12 boards) led Chestnut Hill to a 55-50 win over Post on a day where the Griffins out-scored the Eagles 17-9 in the last period… Sara Pfieffer’s 29-point explosion was in vain as D’Youville fell to St. Thomas Aquinas, 84-64. The Spartans had four in double digits as they continue to climb the ECC ladder… Stephanie McBride went off for career-highs in points (25) and rebounds (20) as Bridgeport edged Queens, 67-66. A dozen of her boards were of the offensive variety… Casey O’Shaughnessy dropped in 31 points (13-26 FG) for Caldwell in a defeat to Dominican… and Destine Perry racked up 28 points in AIC’s loss to Queens.
Defense wins games… Chestnut Hill shut Staten Island out in the third period, 14-0, in their 68-34 victory in New York. The Dolphins went 13:51 of gametime without a point as the Griffins scored 21 in a row to pull away… Sciences held Felician to 3-22 from the floor in the middle two periods of a 65-36 decision. The Golden Falcons mustered just seven total points in the stanza.