Women’s Notebook – NCAA tournament preview
By Stephen Zerdelian
After a weekend of excellent regional conference championship games, we are set for the first full NCAA East regional since 2019. It has been a long road for all the teams in the region but kudos to all for grinding through the difficulties and giving all of us on the outside looking in a chance to revel in a competitive environment.
Backtracking just a little, a quick look at the regional conference tournament results… Bentley won their 21st NE10 title (out of forty available) by pushing past Stonehill, 56-49. The Falcons held the Skyhawks to four points in the fourth quarter (1-14 from the field) to flip a 45-41 deficit into a seven-point victory. Autumn Ceppi (17 points, 13 rebounds) earned Most Outstanding Player honors for Bentley, which takes a five-game winning streak into the NCAA’s… Daemen won their second ECC crown, turning back resilient Molloy in western New York, 74-67. The Wildcats led, 44-28, early in the third quarter but the Lions roared back to eventually tie the game at 63 with 3:03 left. Katie Titus’ three-point play restored Daemen’s lead shortly thereafter, and they sank 6-6 at the line in the last 1:05 to seal it. Kaytlyn Matz picked up MOP honors thanks to a career game (19 points, 10 boards) to propel Daemen to the crown… The University of the Sciences snared their third CACC championship in the last five years, repelling Jefferson, 53-44, at Caldwell. Jess Huber, the CACC Player of the Year, added MOP accolades to her resume, with 12 points and six boards in the title game. The Devils held all three teams they faced in the CACC tourney to 47 points or less, and the Rams lost the glass (40-25) and second chance points (17-5), dooming them to defeat in the final. The major difference between the CACC championship game and the NE10 and ECC was that both Sciences and Jefferson were all but assured of NCAA bids going into the title clash (the others were not), but the contest was just as good as the other two.
Southern New Hampshire earned the #1 regional seed and hosting duties based on their seasonal body of work, which is a fair reflection of the season. Once the conference tournaments were finished, the regional committee had an easy path to selecting the correct eight teams, and so they did. The one thing this space was hoping for did come to fruition, with the four NE10 teams facing the three CACC outfits and Daemen in the opening round. The cross-pollination is exactly what fans always want to see, especially this season, with a lesser amount of non-conference games played. Ultimately, it should be a competitive regional, much like the last full one, when #7 seed Saint Anselm beat #4 seed Le Moyne in Philadelphia.
Time for a shorthand check on the first-round matchups…
(3) Sciences vs. (6) Le Moyne
This promises to be a tactical battle between Jackie Hartzell and Mary Grimes, both masters of game-planning and in-game adjustments. LC’s zone has been an irritant for most opponents this season while the Devils are well-versed in spreading the floor and exploiting gaps. The Dolphins have been win one, lose one for the last six games but the rest (they’ve been off since the 3rd, which means an eight-day break) will do them a world of good. Sciences, of course, knows that their next loss will be the death knell for the program, so motivation will not be lacking. Both were part of ’19 field, when Le Moyne stunned the Devils at Bobby Morgan Arena in the regional semifinals, so they also have recent history (albeit LC was under the direction of Gina Castelli at that point). The 3-6 regional game has been reasonably close over the years in the 64-team field era (10-7 in favor of the #3) but the #6 has won four of the last five outings. It all adds up to a tight one to start the proceedings in Manchester.
(2) Chestnut Hill vs. (7) Pace
The Griffins are making their NCAA tourney debut while the Setters are back in the field for the first time since 2012, so there will be a bunch of firsts here. CHC is probably the story of the season (especially having lost their top scorer, Leah Miller, in December) and it will be interesting to see how Jim Connolly’s bunch approaches the regional, having split their last four games. The Griffins played only one NE10 team this season (New Haven, whom they beat, 66-61) while Pace is 3-0 against the CACC (wins over Felician, Dominican and Caldwell, by an average of almost 18 points per game). Leaving out the ersatz regional last winter, regional debutants haven’t fared well; the last first-year entrant to win a game before ’21 was Merrimack in ’03. Carrie Seymour has the experience edge in the coaching matchup, with a regional title in her pocket in ’01 and a regional final visit in ’11, but her team is heavily reliant on Lauren Schetter, which leaves them vulnerable if she isn’t at her best (or close to it). The team that copes with the occasion better may be the one that emerges and advances.
(1) Southern New Hampshire vs. (8) Daemen
SNHU is in the field for the first time since 1990, when they were known as New Hampshire College, and will face the victor of last year’s reduced regional, Daemen. This one is fascinating in many ways. On one hand, you have the best Penmen team in generations, maybe ever, but they aren’t likely to be full strength for the rest of the season. Gyanna Russell, SNHU’s best dribble-driver, is almost certainly done for the season but Meg Knollmeyer, their athletic pivot, may return. Nonetheless, Karen Pinkos’ club has good depth and are loaded with upper class players, which helps in these situations. Home court helps, too. Meanwhile, Daemen has been waiting for a shot in a full regional, which wasn’t the case in ’20 or ’21. Jenepher Banker’s team must be excited to have the chance to succeed in this realm, and with ECC Player of the Year Katie Titus and a tested cast around her, they can be trouble. Expect this one to be a back-and-forth contest and potentially the second time an 8-seed wins in this regional (Holy Family in ’15)
(4) Jefferson vs. (5) Bentley
Tom Shirley’s Rams are in search their first NCAA victory since 1998, which was two name changes ago (they won as Philadelphia Textile, with Philadelphia as the other moniker before Jefferson). Bentley is making their record 36th NCAA tournament appearance but their first under C White’s direction. The two programs have faced off only once in the post season (2018, when the Falcons eliminated the Rams in the NCAA opening round), and just four times ever, with Bentley prevailing each time. It’s cliché to say the Falcons are playing their best basketball of the season right now but with a youngish team (only one regular ever having played more than on season for the Falcons before this year), it’s true. Jefferson isn’t old, either – in fact, the Rams sport only one senior and have significantly accelerated their timeline this season. Either way, there will be continued growth for both teams thanks to appearing in this regional regardless of who advances.
Notes…
The four NE10 teams combined to go 10-1 against the ECC and CACC this season but none have played any of the CACC NCAA tourney teams or Daemen… For that matter, Daemen hasn’t played any of the other teams in the regional field, so this regional event has more mystery than usual… In the 64-team era (not counting ’21), the NE10 is 20-8 against the CACC and 24-9 against the ECC. In games between the CACC and ECC, they are dead-even at 7-7…This is the first time a full regional has been held in the state of New Hampshire but single first round contests (then known as ‘play-in’ games) occurred in 1994 (Saint Anselm beat Bridgeport; and Franklin Pierce lost to UMass.-Lowell)… Only eight programs which are currently in the region have received 10 or more NCAA bids – Bentley (36), Stonehill (26), AIC (12), Franklin Pierce (12), Holy Family (12), Jefferson (10), Pace (10) and the College of Saint Rose (10)… Predictably, the most even first round match-up is #4 vs. #5, which stands at 9-8 in favor of the 5-seed (again, not counting ’21)…
Backtracking (again)…
Back on December 24, I ran a Chronicles of Z column that checked on the teams with .667 or better winning percentages that checked on the teams with .667 or better winning percentages and tried to extrapolate out into March. The results were fairly accurate, with six of the nine are in the NCAA field, with the two others close.
https://www.d2easthoops.org/women/features/The_Chronicles_of_Z/Mid-Season_top_team_spotlight
And, of January 28, I ran a more in-depth column, highlighting the teams I felt could be in the field. This one was even more accurate, with the eight teams featured all making their way to the NCAA tournament. I'm not so sure I have ever been as accurate!
Enjoy the NCAA weekend. The teams have worked very hard in tough circumstances to get there, and all deserve to be applauded and lauded. Best of luck to them all!